Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:47:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21fb…842c weather 1106 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d only
✗ bot/MM pace (74 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,307 (-24%) realized −$1,230 · open −$77
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate35%335W / 611L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day73.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days−$162
14 days+$28
30 days−$681
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 73% −$479
crypto 26% +$32
sports 0% −$1
other 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (74 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 382 +1.5% -8.1% 29% 27% -21.4%
≤30d 885 -15.2% -23.3% 31% 26% -21.9%
≤90d 946 -6.6% -15.5% 35% 30% -16.0%
all 946 -6.6% -15.5% 35% 30% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 30% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 28% -24.0%
15% -31.0% 26% -31.4%
20% -37.7% 24% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$151
Realized−$1,230
Unrealized−$77
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses335 / 611
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions160
Markets (closed)946 / 1106
History coverage31d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day73.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 160 History 946 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 19? No 61¢ 62¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18? Yes 37¢ 92¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+147%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 19? No 66¢ 68¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 19? No 62¢ 63¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? Yes 35¢ 68¢ $2 $3 +$2 (+96%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 19? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 19? No 72¢ 72¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 19? Yes 15¢ 34¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+130%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 19? No 62¢ 64¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 19? Yes 4¢ 9¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+125%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 19? Yes 31¢ 36¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 19? Yes 14¢ 28¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+96%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 19? Yes 33¢ 40¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 19? Yes 27¢ 33¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 19? Yes 32¢ 40¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 19? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? Yes 28¢ 35¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 19? Yes 27¢ 30¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? Yes 31¢ 36¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 19? Yes 33¢ 36¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 19? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+76%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 19? Yes 13¢ 22¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+65%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 19? Yes 22¢ 29¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 19? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 104 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 +$11 +999%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 +$3 +183%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 +$3 +183%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 +$3 +175%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 +$4 +200%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 18? Jun 18 $17 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 +$5 +607%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 +$4 +290%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 +$6 +558%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 +$7 +659%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 +$3 +191%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 +$4 +350%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 +$3 +175%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 +$3 +191%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 +$3 +224%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 +$3 +230%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 +$4 +296%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 17? Jun 18 $2 +$3 +161%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 +$6 +560%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 18 $4 +$3 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? Jun 18 $12 +$4 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? Jun 18 $2 +$4 +219%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? Jun 18 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 18 $1 +$5 +482%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 17 $1 +$4 +350%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 +$4 +113%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 15? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 15? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 15? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 19? BUY No 72¢ $2 14m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 61¢ $2 21m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 98¢ $1 24m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $5 28m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 18? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 30m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 37m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 19? BUY No 66¢ $3 39m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 61¢ $3 46m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 19? BUY No 66¢ $3 57m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 62¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 62¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 18? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 18? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 18? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 62¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $11 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 18? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $11 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 19? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 19? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 19? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 19? BUY Yes 33¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 19? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 18? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 19? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 19? BUY Yes 36¢ $0 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $151.42 · official $151.43 (match) · 3500 history records