Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:05:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

21
0x21fc…59c7
crypto · 1465 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$245 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$244 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$244
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses1112 / 351
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1463 / 1465
History coverage25d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day102.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 1463 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days−$185
14 days−$298
30 days−$244
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Up 0¢ 50¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$18 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$4 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$4 +210%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$4 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$4 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$3 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$5 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$6 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$5 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$242
other 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $28 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $4 52m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 464 -0.2% -9.7% 64% 58% -20.6%
≤30d 1463 -0.1% -9.6% 76% 48% -15.3%
≤90d 1463 -0.1% -9.6% 76% 48% -15.3%
all 1463 -0.1% -9.6% 76% 48% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover102.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 48% -15.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 26% -23.4%
15% -26.2% 16% -30.8%
20% -33.4% 10% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.70 · official $1.70 (match) · 3500 history records