Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:03:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
21 0x21fe…da90 politics 430 markets active 2h ago coverage 573d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Covers last 573d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$18,728 (+6%) realized +$17,728 · open +$1,000
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate64%242W / 139L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$724per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$10,677now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$111
14 days+$26
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 26% +$6,979
other 21% +$4,715
crypto 18% +$8,036
world 16% +$3,448
tech 11% +$909
culture 4% +$1,170
economics 2% −$271
sports 1% −$238
finance 1% +$116
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -11.3% -19.8% 56% 44% -6.8%
≤30d 14 -27.7% -34.6% 43% 36% -9.0%
≤90d 78 +1.2% -8.4% 62% 27% -3.8%
all 381 +12.2% +1.5% 64% 34% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.5% 34% -5.2%
10% -8.2% 23% -14.3%
15% -17.0% 15% -22.6%
20% -25.2% 13% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +28% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$152 vs −$95 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.84 per $1 lost it wins $2.84
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

573d coverage
Net worth$10,677
Realized+$17,728
Unrealized+$1,000
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses242 / 139
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions49
Markets (closed)381 / 430
History coverage573d ⚠
Avg bet$724
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 49 History 381 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? No 75¢ 92¢ $923 $1,133 +$210 (+23%)
Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026? Yes 90¢ 87¢ $1,043 $1,011 −$31 (-3%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 46¢ 62¢ $593 $812 +$219 (+37%)
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? No 82¢ 94¢ $691 $792 +$101 (+15%)
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $877 $750 −$127 (-14%)
Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO before 2027? No 81¢ 95¢ $565 $666 +$101 (+18%)
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $513 $521 +$8 (+2%)
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota governor race in 2026? Yes 91¢ 94¢ $455 $467 +$12 (+3%)
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? No 70¢ 64¢ $472 $435 −$37 (-8%)
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $310 $425 +$115 (+37%)
Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 100¢ $381 $416 +$34 (+9%)
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Yes 70¢ 65¢ $350 $325 −$25 (-7%)
Will the Democrats win the New Mexico governor race in 2026? Yes 79¢ 87¢ $236 $260 +$24 (+10%)
AI bubble burst in 2026? No 75¢ 80¢ $224 $239 +$15 (+7%)
Will the Democrats win the Connecticut governor race in 2026? Yes 92¢ 91¢ $240 $237 −$3 (-1%)
Will any U.S. Senator enter Iran by June 30? No 87¢ 99¢ $174 $198 +$24 (+14%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $161 $198 +$36 (+23%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 76¢ 99¢ $152 $197 +$45 (+30%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 95¢ 98¢ $191 $197 +$6 (+3%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 14¢ 74¢ $34 $185 +$151 (+442%)
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? Yes 72¢ 78¢ $144 $155 +$11 (+8%)
Will the Democrats win the Illinois governor race in 2026? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $147 $147 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Democrats win the Maryland governor race in 2026? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $124 $125 +$2 (+1%)
Andy Jassy out as Amazon CEO before 2027? No 78¢ 92¢ $94 $111 +$17 (+18%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 75¢ 100¢ $75 $100 +$25 (+33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $67 +$33 +50%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 18 $3,150 +$145 +5%
Epstein client list released by June 30? Jun 17 $66 +$15 +23%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $140 −$2 -1%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $46 −$21 -46%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $14 +$8 +56%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $77 +$9 +12%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% o Jun 13 $53 −$53 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 06 $78 −$2 -2%
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate Jun 02 $226 +$38 +17%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 29 $39 −$39 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? May 16 $80 −$80 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 16 $385 +$60 +16%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 12 $860 +$1,140 +133%
Will Germany strike Iran by April 30? May 10 $9 +$1 +6%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 17 $13 +$3 +24%
Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026? Apr 13 $308 −$308 -100%
Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026? Apr 13 $502 −$42 -8%
Military action against Iran ends by June 30, 2026? Apr 13 $88 −$88 -100%
Military action against Iran ends by April 12, 2026? Apr 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Military action against Iran ends by May 31, 2026? Apr 13 $308 −$87 -28%
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31? Apr 13 $464 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 13 $543 +$47 +9%
Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026? Apr 13 $398 +$8 +2%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Apr 13 $800 +$50 +6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Apr 13 $198 +$49 +25%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Apr 13 $706 +$216 +30%
Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026? Apr 13 $670 +$250 +37%
Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 Apr 13 $473 +$17 +4%
Will France strike Iran by April 30? Apr 13 $612 +$29 +5%
Will UK strike Iran by April 30? Apr 13 $347 +$6 +2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 13 $2,458 +$264 +11%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 13 $2,279 +$338 +15%
Military action against Iran ends by April 19, 2026? Apr 13 $101 +$4 +4%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $2,686 $0 +0%
Military action against Iran ends by April 14, 2026? Apr 12 $4 −$2 -64%
Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026? Apr 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Military action against Iran ends by April 22, 2026? Apr 12 $45 −$6 -13%
Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026? Apr 12 $60 −$58 -97%
Military action against Iran ends by April 9, 2026? Apr 11 $2 +$26 +1100%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Military action against Iran ends by April 26, 2026? Apr 10 $19 +$4 +19%
Military action against Iran ends by April 11, 2026? Apr 10 $16 +$3 +21%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? Apr 08 $2,134 +$9 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 06 $661 +$53 +8%
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? Apr 06 $53 +$1 +1%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 06 $169 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 75¢ $76 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $6 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $67 6h
Andy Jassy out as Amazon CEO before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $179 22h
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $390 32h
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $99 2d
Epstein client list released by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $62 3d
Epstein client list released by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $19 3d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $138 4d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $140 4d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $81 5d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $25 5d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Neither team to score first? BUY No 64¢ $14 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 28¢ $29 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 86¢ $85 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 77¢ $77 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 63¢ $32 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $165 10d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $46 10d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $52 10d
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? SELL Yes 95¢ $188 11d
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? BUY No 43¢ $29 13d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 38¢ $23 14d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 38¢ $2 14d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 38¢ $51 14d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 38¢ $78 14d
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? BUY No 43¢ $0 15d
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? BUY No 43¢ $5 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,677.18 · official $10,677.18 (match) · 3500 history records