trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 9 | +1.2% | -8.5% | 22% | 0% | -8.6% |
| ≤30d | 16 | +8.5% | -1.9% | 56% | 6% | -6.3% |
| ≤90d | 17 | +7.5% | -2.7% | 53% | 6% | -6.5% |
| all | 27 | +5.2% | -4.8% | 63% | 4% | -6.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -4.8% | 4% | -6.7% |
| 10% | -13.9% | 4% | -15.6% |
| 15% | -22.2% | 4% | -23.8% |
| 20% | -29.9% | 4% | -31.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 21 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | Jun 20 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Jun 20 | $56 | $0 | -0% |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | Jun 20 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 19 | $92 | +$4 | +4% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 19 | $39 | −$1 | -2% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | Jun 19 | $53 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | Jun 18 | $5 | $0 | +8% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 17 | $58 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | May 27 | $147 | +$1 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 26 | $52 | +$2 | +4% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 25 | $9 | $0 | +4% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 25 | $55 | +$4 | +8% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 25 | $13 | +$14 | +109% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 24 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 23 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 21 | $18 | −$1 | -8% |
| Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 16 | $2 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Meta buy TikTok? | Jun 28 | $11 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Joao Fonseca win the 2025 French Open? | Jun 01 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? | May 17 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? | Apr 26 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? | Apr 25 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? | Apr 19 | $11 | +$1 | +7% |
| Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? | Apr 05 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? | Mar 27 | $12 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Albania beat England | Mar 23 | $12 | $0 | +2% |