Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:42:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

21
0x21ff…0d71
other · 424 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$10,660 +14%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,076 · open −$10,836
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$137,033
Realized+$2,076
Unrealized−$10,836
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses140 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$145
Open positions482
Markets (closed)217 / 424
Avg bet$174
Trades / day3428.0
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 482 History 217 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,076
7 days+$2,076
14 days+$2,076
30 days+$2,076
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 83¢ 85¢ $1,900 $1,948 +$48 (+3%)
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,903 $1,903 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 76¢ 72¢ $1,865 $1,759 −$107 (-6%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 54¢ 56¢ $1,635 $1,680 +$46 (+3%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 74¢ 66¢ $1,874 $1,675 −$200 (-11%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 73¢ 74¢ $1,538 $1,554 +$16 (+1%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $1,528 $1,530 +$2 (+0%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 56¢ 50¢ $1,576 $1,423 −$153 (-10%)
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? No 93¢ 96¢ $1,137 $1,168 +$31 (+3%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 39¢ 38¢ $1,180 $1,125 −$55 (-5%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 48¢ 38¢ $1,371 $1,104 −$267 (-19%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 79¢ 72¢ $1,155 $1,060 −$95 (-8%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 81¢ 72¢ $1,093 $984 −$109 (-10%)
Is Earth flat? No 97¢ 97¢ $972 $970 −$2 (-0%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 80¢ 82¢ $879 $903 +$24 (+3%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 78¢ 77¢ $909 $902 −$6 (-1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1,031 $891 −$141 (-14%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 87¢ $878 $870 −$8 (-1%)
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? No 84¢ 77¢ $946 $867 −$79 (-8%)
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $866 $866 −$1 (-0%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 42¢ 44¢ $797 $823 +$26 (+3%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 67¢ 67¢ $793 $793 +$0 (+0%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $766 $769 +$3 (+0%)
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $747 $748 +$0 (+0%)
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 74¢ 72¢ $731 $719 −$12 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $657 −$54 -8%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1,056 +$20 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 12 $170 −$96 -56%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $309 −$57 -18%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $99 −$17 -17%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $380 +$117 +31%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $188 +$14 +8%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash ra Jun 12 $394 −$92 -23%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $285 +$17 +6%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? Jun 12 $98 −$91 -94%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $702 −$49 -7%
Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal? Jun 12 $16 +$1 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $359 −$14 -4%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $158 +$5 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 12 $216 −$63 -29%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Jun 12 $25 −$10 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 12 $802 −$75 -9%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 12 $14 +$9 +69%
Will Senegal be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Jun 12 $28 −$22 -81%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 12 $81 +$5 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $56 +$1 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $51 $0 +0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $50 +$15 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $99 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$15 +583%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $390 −$50 -13%
Will Tunisia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 12 $83 −$59 -70%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $637 +$14 +2%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 12 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 12 $20 +$9 +46%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 12 $59 +$79 +132%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $130 −$2 -2%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 12 $1,048 +$452 +43%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 12 $768 +$753 +98%
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Jun 12 $7 −$4 -64%
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? Jun 12 $214 −$24 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $21 $0 +1%
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $98 −$72 -74%
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $12 +$26 +210%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 12 $27 +$67 +250%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 12 $101 −$85 -84%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $176 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 12 $50 +$2 +4%
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $47 +$122 +259%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Jun 12 $185 $0 +0%
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? Jun 12 $52 −$2 -4%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $763 +$15 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $156 +$157 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 73% −$9,480
world 9% +$569
sports 6% −$218
weather 5% +$617
politics 2% −$622
economics 2% +$808
finance 1% −$89
crypto 1% −$140
tech 0% −$105
culture 0% −$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Surf launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $19 0m
Will Surf launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 0m
Will Surf launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 0m
Exact Score: United States 2 - 3 Paraguay? SELL No 99¢ $50 0m
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? SELL No 90¢ $44 0m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 0m
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? SELL No 89¢ $27 0m
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $20 0m
Will Algeria reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $18 1m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $168 1m
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $2 1m
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $93 1m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL No 86¢ $74 1m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $94 2m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $2 2m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $2 2m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $20 2m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $19 2m
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 94¢ $135 2m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $387 2m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 51¢ $1 3m
Will Amazon have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 66¢ $26 3m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $36 3m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 96¢ $24 3m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 51¢ $2 3m
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $17 4m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $88 4m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? SELL No 96¢ $5 4m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? SELL No 96¢ $5 4m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 217 +32.9% +20.2% 65% 22% -4.0%
≤30d 217 +32.9% +20.2% 65% 22% -4.0%
≤90d 217 +32.9% +20.2% 65% 22% -4.0%
all 217 +32.9% +20.2% 65% 22% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3428.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.2% 22% -4.0%
10% ← realistic here +8.7% 19% -13.2%
15% -1.8% 16% -21.6%
20% -11.4% 13% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137,032.76 · official $175,951.43 · 3500 history records