trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -6.8% | -15.6% | 75% | 50% | -24.2% |
| ≤30d | 4 | -6.8% | -15.6% | 75% | 50% | -24.2% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -6.9% | -15.7% | 67% | 50% | -27.3% |
| all | 20 | -14.6% | -22.7% | 60% | 25% | -28.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -22.7% | 25% | -28.6% |
| 10% | -30.1% | 20% | -35.4% |
| 15% | -36.9% | 10% | -41.7% |
| 20% | -43.1% | 10% | -47.4% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $105 | −$105 | -100% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $102 | +$3 | +3% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $89 | +$13 | +14% |
| Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? | Jun 11 | $57 | +$32 | +56% |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $229 | −$173 | -76% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | May 16 | $143 | +$88 | +61% |
| US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? | Mar 09 | $100 | +$1 | +1% |
| Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | Feb 22 | $100 | +$28 | +28% |
| U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? | Feb 03 | $81 | −$67 | -83% |
| Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina | Feb 03 | $22 | −$20 | -91% |
| Artemis II booster rupture? | Feb 02 | $50 | +$2 | +4% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 2? | Feb 02 | $5 | +$1 | +23% |
| Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more? | Feb 02 | $77 | −$73 | -94% |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | Feb 01 | $66 | −$4 | -7% |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Feb 01 | $32 | $0 | +1% |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Feb 01 | $21 | +$2 | +8% |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by January 31? | Jan 31 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more? | Jan 31 | $80 | −$29 | -37% |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Jan 31 | $50 | $0 | -0% |
| US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026? | Jan 25 | $20 | $0 | +1% |