Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:13:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
22 0x2200…0f2d world 144 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 113d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$29,847 (+9%) realized +$31,139 · open −$1,292
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate43%67W / 88L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$2,354per market
Trades / day29.3pace
Fees−$219est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1,424now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$197
7 days−$6,801
14 days+$15,041
30 days+$12,122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$3,666
politics 30% +$12,209
other 4% −$1,212
crypto 1% +$5,665
sports 1% +$9,460
economics 1% −$1,453
tech 0% −$235
finance 0% −$604
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -56.8% -60.9% 21% 17% -24.1%
≤30d 71 -35.7% -41.8% 31% 24% -4.8%
≤90d 134 +20.6% +9.1% 41% 32% -2.5%
all 155 +18.6% +7.3% 43% 33% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.3% 33% -2.2%
10% -3.0% 28% -11.5%
15% ← realistic here -12.4% 25% -20.1%
20% -21.0% 20% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$1,439) neutral
Persistence
early +30% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
14.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,086 vs −$526 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$1,424
Realized+$31,139
Unrealized−$1,292
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses67 / 88
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$219
Open positions6
Markets (closed)155 / 144
History coverage114d ⚠
Avg bet$2,354
Trades / day29.3
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 9¢ 13¢ $963 $1,399 +$435 (+45%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 55¢ 1¢ $824 $18 −$806 (-98%)
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $466 $3 −$464 (-99%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $188 $2 −$186 (-99%)
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $116 $1 −$115 (-99%)
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $158 $1 −$157 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Julie Menin be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Lina Khan be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Brad Lander be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Cynthia Nixon be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Will George Conway be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Scott Stringer be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Liz Krueger be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Cameron Kasky be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Chelsea Clinton be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Erik Bottcher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Brad Hoylman-Sigal be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Liam Elkind be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Jack Schlossberg be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Keith Powers be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Gale Brewer be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Carolyn Maloney be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 25 $102 −$102 -100%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $2,152 −$90 -4%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? Jun 25 $7,083 +$38 +0%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 24 $112 +$48 +43%
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 24 $331 +$146 +44%
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 24 $2,485 +$1,398 +56%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 21 $4,706 +$153 +3%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $994 +$790 +79%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $437 −$430 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $138 −$138 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $263 +$287 +109%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 18 $330 −$214 -65%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 18 $476 +$198 +42%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 18 $50 −$10 -20%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 18 $109 −$109 -100%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 18 $164 −$164 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 18 $188 −$188 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 18 $58 −$58 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 18 $255 −$255 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 18 $1,217 +$1,466 +120%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 18 $1,946 −$1,946 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 18 $6,019 −$1,353 -22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 18 $678 −$678 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 18 $11,609 −$3,864 -33%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Jun 18 $3,080 +$141 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $75,466 +$18,780 +25%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 14 $22,497 +$2,976 +13%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $700 +$12 +2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $808 −$67 -8%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $42,130 +$1,211 +3%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $1,840 +$2,474 +134%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $431 −$25 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 11¢ $35 55m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 11¢ $130 55m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 10¢ $41 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 10¢ $55 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 10¢ $70 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 10¢ $98 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 10¢ $194 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 9¢ $153 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 9¢ $27 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 9¢ $81 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 8¢ $168 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 9¢ $24 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 9¢ $73 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 9¢ $91 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 7¢ $216 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 11¢ $34 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 11¢ $18 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 11¢ $338 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 11¢ $384 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 9¢ $258 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 8¢ $395 2h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $2,062 13h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $4,074 13h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $1 13h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $6 13h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $3,041 14h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $685 26h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $208 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,423.52 · official $1,423.53 (match) · 3500 history records