Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:37:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
22 0x2207…036a sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+5%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$41
sports 33% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +2.6% -7.2% 56% 56% +29.9%
≤30d 9 +2.6% -7.2% 56% 56% +29.9%
≤90d 9 +2.6% -7.2% 56% 56% +29.9%
all 9 +2.6% -7.2% 56% 56% +29.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 56% +29.9%
10% -16.1% 44% +17.5%
15% -24.2% 33% +6.1%
20% -31.6% 33% -4.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$4 · ×2.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.36 per $1 lost it wins $3.36
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage3d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $46 +$34 +75%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $5 +$1 +14%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 +$9 +57%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $5 +$13 +250%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 39¢ $6 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 73¢ $54 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 28¢ $7 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $5 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 21¢ $5 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Patrik Schick: 1+ goals AND B BUY 5¢ $2 12h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $5 12h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $15 12h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY 27¢ $3 43h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $5 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 62¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records