Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:47:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x2208…53ee crypto 281 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$422 (-3%) realized −$399 · open −$23
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%136W / 143L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$96est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$534now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$265
7 days−$319
14 days−$377
30 days−$182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% −$1,067
sports 38% +$238
other 10% −$455
finance 3% +$691
world 3% −$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 50% -34.4%
≤30d 103 +8.8% -1.5% 51% 50% -11.7%
≤90d 279 +6.2% -3.9% 49% 48% -13.5%
all 279 +6.2% -3.9% 49% 48% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.9% 48% -13.5%
10% -13.1% 48% -21.8%
15% -21.5% 48% -29.3%
20% -29.2% 46% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$51 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$534
Realized−$399
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses136 / 143
Est. fees paid−$96
Open positions2
Markets (closed)279 / 281
History coverage85d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 279 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $517 $515 −$1 (-0%)
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $19 −$21 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 93 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $112 −$110 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $157 −$155 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$45 +90%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $175 −$173 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$99 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $141 +$59 +41%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $198 −$195 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $87 +$149 +172%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $26 +$22 +83%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 10 $51 +$47 +93%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $101 −$100 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $195 −$192 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $122 −$120 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $203 −$47 -23%
Modena: Xinyu Gao vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 09 $77 −$75 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $11 +$12 +109%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $51 +$37 +73%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 09 $68 +$75 +111%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $103 +$106 +103%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 08 $101 −$100 -99%
Libema Open: Mia Pohankova vs Clara Tauson Jun 08 $203 −$200 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $122 +$96 +79%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $58 +$50 +86%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $25 −$25 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $102 +$129 +127%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $145 −$143 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $155 −$151 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $203 +$185 +91%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 06 $122 +$154 +126%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $319 −$315 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 06 $122 −$5 -4%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $122 −$120 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $51 −$3 -6%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $278 +$154 +55%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $102 +$102 +101%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 05 $304 −$300 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $101 −$3 -3%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $254 −$12 -5%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $101 +$44 +43%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $41 −$4 -9%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $31 −$30 -97%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $76 −$75 -99%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $197 +$137 +69%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $244 +$284 +116%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $132 +$143 +108%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $172 +$118 +69%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 Jun 04 $61 −$12 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $529 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 44¢ $112 40h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 43h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $136 43h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $51 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 48¢ $41 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $114 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $141 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $66 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $132 6d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 100¢ $235 6d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 36¢ $87 6d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Milwaukee Brewers 52¢ $101 7d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 51¢ $51 7d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 30¢ $34 7d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 44¢ $26 7d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 51¢ $20 7d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 45¢ $20 7d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 54¢ $16 7d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 45¢ $51 7d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 38¢ $156 7d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 51¢ $101 7d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 45¢ $30 7d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 7d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 45¢ $34 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $533.94 · official $533.94 (match) · 1116 history records