Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:11:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
22 0x220c…6c97 crypto 129 markets active 0h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$921 (+3%) realized +$920 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate92%118W / 10L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$248per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$201now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days−$234
14 days+$11
30 days+$349
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$792
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -13.7% -22.0% 80% 20% -28.7%
≤30d 40 +0.6% -9.0% 95% 18% -6.9%
≤90d 112 +1.3% -8.4% 96% 10% -7.2%
all 128 -1.6% -11.0% 92% 11% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 11% -7.3%
10% -19.5% 2% -16.1%
15% -27.3% 1% -24.2%
20% -34.4% 1% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$31 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.53 per $1 lost it wins $3.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$201
Realized+$920
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses118 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage99d
Avg bet$248
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? No 93¢ 94¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $202 +$30 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $200 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $200 +$6 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $201 +$12 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $304 −$286 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $452 +$24 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $451 +$16 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $451 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $401 +$18 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $401 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $401 +$16 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $303 +$25 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $301 +$18 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $303 +$12 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $2 $0 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $301 +$14 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $303 +$40 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $302 +$15 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $304 +$35 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $302 +$37 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $607 +$104 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $302 +$28 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $604 +$30 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 31? May 31 $301 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 31 $1 $0 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 29? May 29 $361 +$9 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? May 28 $302 +$22 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 27? May 27 $301 +$11 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26? May 26 $301 +$17 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 25? May 25 $301 +$8 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 24? May 24 $301 +$15 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 23? May 23 $300 +$6 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 23? May 23 $301 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22? May 22 $300 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 21? May 21 $300 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 20 $1 $0 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 20 $400 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 19? May 19 $401 +$14 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1PM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 18? May 18 $301 +$18 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 17 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 17 $1 $0 +29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 16? May 16 $400 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 15? May 15 $300 +$6 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15? May 15 $301 +$7 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 15? May 15 $301 +$5 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 14? May 14 $301 +$13 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? May 14 $370 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 13? May 13 $361 +$6 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 13? May 13 $351 +$16 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $201 14m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 88¢ $203 51m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 86¢ $202 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $232 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $202 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $204 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $200 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $206 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 97¢ $200 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $213 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? BUY No 94¢ $201 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? SELL No 5¢ $18 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? BUY No 83¢ $304 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? SELL No 100¢ $476 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? BUY No 94¢ $452 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? SELL No 100¢ $468 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? BUY No 96¢ $451 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? SELL No 100¢ $457 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? BUY No 98¢ $451 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? SELL No 100¢ $419 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? BUY No 95¢ $401 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? SELL Yes 98¢ $406 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 96¢ $401 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? SELL Yes 100¢ $417 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? BUY Yes 95¢ $401 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? SELL No 92¢ $329 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? BUY No 84¢ $303 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? SELL No 100¢ $319 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? BUY No 94¢ $301 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? SELL No 90¢ $315 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $201.08 · official $201.08 (match) · 271 history records