Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:42:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
22 0x220e…9223 other 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$19 (+0%) realized +$16 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate90%19W / 2L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$757per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$1,350now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$19
14 days+$21
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% +$18
other 8% $0
world 5% +$4
politics 1% $0
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 11 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 19 +0.2% -9.3% 95% 0% -9.4%
all 21 -2.3% -11.6% 90% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 0% -9.4%
10% -20.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -27.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,029) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×6.08 per $1 lost it wins $6.08
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$1,350
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses19 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)21 / 26
History coverage144d
Avg bet$757
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $499 $499 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 19? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $421 $423 +$2 (+0%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $359 $359 +$1 (+0%)
Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $58 $58 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $4,702 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $3,412 +$3 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? Jun 16 $200 $0 +0%
JD Vance out as VP by June 15? Jun 16 $66 $0 +0%
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1,029 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $3,409 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $2,007 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $500 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 10 $110 +$1 +1%
Trump out as President by May 31? Jun 06 $110 $0 +0%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 18 $251 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30? May 15 $250 +$1 +0%
Will either Tate brother be arrested by March 31? Apr 19 $109 −$3 -3%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by March 31? Apr 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will QFEX launch a token by March 31, 2026? Apr 19 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Apr 19 $20 $0 +0%
X banned in U.K. by March 31? Apr 19 $103 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 21 $25 +$1 +2%
Rainbow FDV above $70M one day after launch? Feb 12 $1 $0 +2%
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? Feb 06 $1 −$1 -55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $499 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $199 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $222 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,702 34h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,844 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,567 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $665 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,736 3d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $200 3d
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $400 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,007 4d
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $498 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,998 5d
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $500 7d
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $107 8d
JD Vance out as VP by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $66 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $151 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $110 12d
Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 31d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $110 31d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $108 31d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $251 34d
Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30? BUY No 100¢ $250 60d
Will either Tate brother be arrested by March 31? SELL No 96¢ $106 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,349.57 · official $1,349.57 (match) · 59 history records