Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:47:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
22 0x220e…74ce crypto 111 markets active 2h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$38 (-1%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate34%37W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 25% −$27
other 24% −$2
tech 14% −$1
finance 13% $0
politics 12% −$1
world 5% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 2% +$1
sports 2% −$12
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -25.0% -32.1% 25% 0% -12.6%
≤30d 14 +2.0% -7.8% 36% 7% -9.0%
≤90d 75 -12.7% -21.0% 24% 5% -11.9%
all 109 -6.3% -15.2% 34% 14% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 14% -10.8%
10% -23.4% 9% -19.4%
15% -30.8% 8% -27.1%
20% -37.6% 5% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses37 / 72
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)109 / 111
History coverage146d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 98¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? No 95¢ 95¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De Jun 26 $74 $0 -0%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 24 $34 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $500B and $600B at market close on Jun 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $53 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $10 $0 -1%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $5 +$7 +129%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? May 30 $56 $0 -0%
Will Mikel Merino record the most yellow cards in 2025-26 UEFA Champio May 28 $5 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $25 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 25 $20 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $20 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 25 $5 $0 +2%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? May 24 $14 $0 -0%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k? May 22 $20 +$1 +3%
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? May 20 $5 $0 -0%
Will Walmart acquire TikTok? May 20 $4 $0 -1%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 20 $25 $0 -0%
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? May 20 $17 −$1 -3%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 20 $40 $0 -0%
Will Jessica Pegula be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? May 19 $16 $0 -1%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 19 $20 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 17 $7 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 17 $15 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $16 +$1 +5%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 12 $15 $0 -1%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? May 12 $21 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? May 10 $38 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 06 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Solana reach $160 in May? May 06 $38 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 06 $53 $0 -0%
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? May 06 $20 $0 +0%
Magic vs. Pistons May 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? May 03 $5 $0 -1%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 03 $20 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $43 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $70 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $10 $0 +1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $20 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $27 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 27 $57 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 27 $57 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $20 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $37 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $24 1h
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? BUY No 95¢ $15 1h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De SELL No 99¢ $40 1h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De BUY No 99¢ $40 2d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $34 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $34 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $20 7d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $500B and $600B at market close on BUY No 100¢ $24 14d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $20 14d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $44 14d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $44 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 15d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $10 15d
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $10 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $5 26d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $5 26d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $10 26d
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $10 26d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $35 26d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $35 29d
Will Mikel Merino record the most yellow cards in 2025-26 UEFA Champio SELL No 99¢ $5 29d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $10 29d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $21 29d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $21 31d
Will Mikel Merino record the most yellow cards in 2025-26 UEFA Champio BUY No 99¢ $5 31d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $10 31d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $20 31d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $20 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.89 · official $38.89 (match) · 315 history records