Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:26:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x2218…9fc8 crypto 552 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$748 (-3%) realized −$749 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate60%329W / 215L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days+$130
14 days+$125
30 days+$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$922
sports 1% −$75
other 0% −$64
weather 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +4.9% -5.1% 81% 71% -2.2%
≤30d 34 +3.0% -6.8% 79% 71% -2.4%
≤90d 80 -10.7% -19.2% 62% 55% -14.3%
all 544 -7.3% -16.1% 60% 51% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 51% -13.4%
10% -24.1% 38% -21.7%
15% -31.5% 26% -29.3%
20% -38.2% 18% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$34 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$749
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses329 / 215
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)544 / 552
History coverage134d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 544 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 18¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+66%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 11¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+54%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+36%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $109 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$26 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$29 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$51 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $104 +$51 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $103 −$101 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $102 +$50 +49%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $51 +$25 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $102 +$23 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $102 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$18 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$12 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 21 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 20 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 05 $21 −$8 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 05 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 05 $31 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 05 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 05 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 05 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 05 $21 −$6 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 05 $28 −$26 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 05 $31 −$25 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 05 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 12 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $121 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $127 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $132 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $102 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $155 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $28 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $27 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $29 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $25 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $28 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $37 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.91 · official $8.91 (match) · 1295 history records