Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:40:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
22 0x2218…07bb crypto 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate78%25W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% −$2
crypto 20% $0
other 7% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 18 -0.8% -10.2% 61% 0% -10.8%
all 32 -0.4% -9.9% 78% 0% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -10.6%
10% -18.5% 0% -19.2%
15% -26.4% 0% -27.0%
20% -33.6% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses25 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage107d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $104 $104 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $432 −$2 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $170 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $170 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 04 $106 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 29 $118 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 03 $103 −$15 -15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9? May 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 8? Apr 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on April 7? Apr 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 3? Apr 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on April 1? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 27? Mar 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 26? Mar 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 24? Mar 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on March 23? Mar 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 21? Mar 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on March 20? Mar 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 19? Mar 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 17? Mar 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 14? Mar 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 13? Mar 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 11? Mar 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 10? Mar 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on March 9? Mar 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 8? Mar 09 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $104 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 71¢ $284 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $170 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $170 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $142 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $144 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 73¢ $146 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 73¢ $146 8d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $170 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 7¢ $14 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $14 8d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $170 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $67 19d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 19d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $106 19d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $118 25d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $118 25d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $33 50d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 74d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $28 74d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $12 75d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $14 76d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $11 77d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $13 81d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $11 82d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on April 1? BUY No 100¢ $13 83d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 84d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 30? BUY No 100¢ $14 85d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 88d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.72 · official $103.72 (match) · 75 history records