trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 12 | -60.9% | -64.6% | 8% | 8% | -50.3% |
| ≤30d | 12 | -60.9% | -64.6% | 8% | 8% | -50.3% |
| ≤90d | 19 | -50.0% | -54.8% | 16% | 16% | -24.1% |
| all | 27 | -58.4% | -62.3% | 15% | 15% | -35.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -62.3% | 15% | -35.7% |
| 10% | -65.9% | 11% | -41.9% |
| 15% | -69.2% | 7% | -47.5% |
| 20% | -72.2% | 7% | -52.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 4¢ | 4¢ | $48 | $47 | −$2 (-4%) |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 6¢ | $38 | $41 | +$3 (+7%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee | Jun 16 | $14 | −$13 | -95% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet | Jun 16 | $66 | −$63 | -95% |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee | Jun 15 | $20 | −$19 | -95% |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 14 | $31 | −$5 | -18% |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 14 | $31 | −$5 | -16% |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $51 | −$4 | -7% |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 13 | $101 | −$100 | -99% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $101 | −$6 | -6% |
| Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 12 | $302 | −$300 | -99% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $351 | +$51 | +14% |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? | May 01 | $755 | −$114 | -15% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | May 01 | $150 | −$148 | -99% |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | May 01 | $149 | +$49 | +33% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Apr 12 | $220 | +$354 | +161% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET | Apr 12 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 8? | Apr 07 | $20 | −$19 | -93% |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Apr 07 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? | Feb 09 | $30 | −$30 | -100% |
| Will Zelenskyy wear a suit and tie at the World Economic Forum? | Jan 23 | $50 | −$44 | -88% |
| Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 28? | Dec 27 | $125 | −$125 | -100% |
| Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31? | Dec 27 | $1,250 | −$100 | -8% |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? | Dec 26 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | Dec 25 | $2 | +$1 | +61% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? | Oct 29 | $130 | −$130 | -100% |
| Will XRP reach $3.7 in July? | Jul 23 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |