Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:59:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x221d…e385 sports 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$46 (-16%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$10
politics 35% −$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -4.8% -13.8% 25% 25% -4.6%
≤30d 5 -16.6% -24.5% 20% 20% -26.7%
≤90d 5 -16.6% -24.5% 20% 20% -26.7%
all 5 -16.6% -24.5% 20% 20% -26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.5% 20% -26.7%
10% -31.8% 20% -33.7%
15% -38.4% 20% -40.1%
20% -44.4% 20% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$21 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage12d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 20 $97 −$3 -3%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $16 −$16 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $35 +$31 +89%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $37 −$2 -5%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $101 −$64 -64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) SELL Germany 82¢ $46 1h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Germany 85¢ $48 1h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) SELL Germany 84¢ $48 1h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Germany 85¢ $49 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $16 5h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $66 17h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 BUY Under 52¢ $35 18h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Qatar 44¢ $35 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 45¢ $37 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 8¢ $36 11d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 20¢ $52 12d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 18¢ $2 12d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 25¢ $20 12d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 24¢ $20 12d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 24¢ $7 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 15 history records