Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:16:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x2220…1a0f sports 120 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$887 (+4%) realized +$887 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate33%40W / 80L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day22.9pace
Fees−$425est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,130
7 days+$1,138
14 days+$1,173
30 days+$853
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$336
other 10% −$124
world 3% +$1,343
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +4.8% -5.2% 25% 25% +3.6%
≤30d 109 -13.1% -21.4% 32% 25% -4.9%
≤90d 120 -11.5% -19.9% 33% 25% -4.8%
all 120 -11.5% -19.9% 33% 25% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.9% 25% -4.8%
10% ← realistic here -27.6% 21% -13.9%
15% -34.6% 16% -22.2%
20% -41.0% 12% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$50 · ×2.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$887
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses40 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$425
Open positions0
Markets (closed)120 / 120
History coverage39d
Avg bet$168
Trades / day22.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 120 Trades
no open positions (45 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $698 +$287 +41%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $25 −$13 -50%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $100 −$52 -52%
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $487 −$53 -11%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $700 −$133 -19%
Exact Score: DR Congo 1 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 28 $34 −$34 -100%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $241 −$20 -8%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $9 +$105 +1167%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $97 −$4 -4%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $69 +$229 +331%
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $73 −$71 -97%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $534 +$1,343 +252%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $200 −$200 -100%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $64 −$32 -50%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $901 −$217 -24%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $612 +$236 +39%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $125 −$125 -100%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $96 −$79 -83%
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $32 −$31 -97%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $199 −$25 -13%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $200 −$200 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $81 −$81 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $202 −$200 -99%
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $78 −$78 -99%
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $107 +$69 +65%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $677 +$271 +40%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $300 −$35 -12%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $86 −$74 -87%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $89 −$87 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $1,048 −$40 -4%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $118 +$40 +34%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $514 +$58 +11%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $284 +$673 +237%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $57 −$22 -38%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $94 +$22 +23%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $908 +$1 +0%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $201 +$24 +12%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $59 −$58 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 1¢ $10 58m
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 1¢ $2 58m
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 1¢ $0 58m
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 1¢ $0 58m
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2¢ $6 58m
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2¢ $0 59m
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2¢ $2 59m
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2¢ $11 59m
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2¢ $2 59m
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2¢ $4 59m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 1¢ $48 59m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2¢ $41 59m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2¢ $19 59m
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2¢ $40 59m
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $99 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $27 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $50 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $5 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $18 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $182 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $172 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 52¢ $124 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 52¢ $3 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $144 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 65¢ $99 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 63¢ $8 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 63¢ $1 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 63¢ $326 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $245 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $242 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 934 history records