Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:30:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x2223…d46e politics 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 318d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate30%11W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% $0
politics 25% $0
world 17% −$15
economics 10% +$1
sports 7% $0
finance 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.5% -9.1% 33% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 9 +2.3% -7.4% 33% 11% -14.0%
≤90d 9 +2.3% -7.4% 33% 11% -14.0%
all 37 +0.4% -9.1% 30% 3% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 3% -10.9%
10% -17.8% 3% -19.4%
15% -25.8% 3% -27.2%
20% -33.0% 3% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

318d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses11 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage318d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 78¢ 78¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $31 $0 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $6 −$2 -31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $67 −$14 -21%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 24 $2 +$2 +71%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $49 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $49 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 21 $4 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 17 $115 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 17 $10 $0 -1%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Aug 17 $15 −$1 -8%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 17 $53 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 17 $58 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 17 $63 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 17 $68 +$1 +1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Aug 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 National League Championship? Aug 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell in August? Aug 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3500 on August 7 at 5PM ET? Aug 07 $13 $0 +1%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? Aug 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 06 $7 $0 +2%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 05 $76 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $32 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 11h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 18h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $31 42h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $31 46h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $31 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $31 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 4¢ $0 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $34 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $33 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 26d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 26d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 26d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 26d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $31 26d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $31 26d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 26d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 4¢ $4 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 6¢ $4 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 6¢ $1 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $0 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $18 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $26 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $8 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $22 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $27 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $49 27d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $48 27d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $48 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.19 · official $32.19 (match) · 111 history records