Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:24:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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22 0x2224…23e1 crypto 209 markets active 1h ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,235 (-10%) realized −$4,493 · open +$258
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate71%144W / 59L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$2,673now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$10
14 days−$2,215
30 days−$2,680
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% −$2,039
other 20% −$3,113
world 16% +$1,496
tech 11% −$397
sports 2% +$30
politics 1% +$95
economics 0% −$171
culture 0% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 75% 25% -7.0%
≤30d 65 +9.4% -1.0% 66% 28% -22.7%
≤90d 77 +6.4% -3.8% 65% 30% -22.2%
all 203 -1.5% -10.9% 71% 38% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 38% -19.6%
10% -19.4% 21% -27.3%
15% -27.2% 10% -34.4%
20% -34.3% 6% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$143 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$2,673
Realized−$4,493
Unrealized+$258
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses144 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions6
Markets (closed)203 / 209
History coverage239d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 203 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 73¢ 86¢ $1,130 $1,332 +$202 (+18%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $1,007 $1,035 +$28 (+3%)
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $69 $97 +$28 (+40%)
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? No 50¢ 48¢ $96 $92 −$5 (-5%)
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? Yes 87¢ 97¢ $69 $77 +$8 (+11%)
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? No 49¢ 46¢ $44 $40 −$3 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by June 30? Jun 19 $207 +$5 +2%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $34 −$9 -26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $92 +$8 +9%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $44 +$6 +15%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest Jun 11 $324 −$245 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 11 $50 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 11 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $76 −$75 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $76 +$24 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $76 +$11 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $75 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 11 $126 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $66 −$65 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 11 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 11 $75 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 11 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $151 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 10 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $75 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 10 $101 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 10 $101 −$66 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 10 $253 +$42 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 10 $26 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 10 $76 +$16 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 10 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 10 $105 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $202 −$13 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 10 $82 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 10 $139 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 10 $50 +$1 +3%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1,096 −$1,096 -100%
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 10? Jun 09 $301 −$296 -98%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 09 $1,549 −$234 -15%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $270 −$270 -100%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $915 +$83 +9%
Nothing Ever Happens: May Jun 01 $696 +$479 +69%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $236 +$164 +69%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,317 −$1,231 -53%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $161 +$102 +63%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 31 $3,983 −$711 -18%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 30 $4 +$45 +1279%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? May 29 $41 −$20 -49%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? May 29 $722 −$1 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? May 29 $533 −$10 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $1,007 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $148 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $728 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $74 1h
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY No 50¢ $28 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $8 1h
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY No 50¢ $68 1h
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY No 49¢ $44 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $173 1h
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $211 1h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $26 22h
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju BUY Yes 87¢ $55 2d
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju BUY Yes 87¢ $2 2d
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju BUY Yes 87¢ $13 2d
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $44 4d
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $34 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $92 4d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $20 7d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 7d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $14 7d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 7d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest SELL Yes 5¢ $0 7d
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju SELL No 6¢ $18 7d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest SELL Yes 5¢ $78 7d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest BUY Yes 10¢ $52 8d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest BUY Yes 12¢ $19 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,673.24 · official $2,678.32 (match) · 1061 history records