Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:05:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
22 0x2226…e118 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$62 (+15%) realized +$85 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$99
other 32% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +9.1% -1.3% 71% 71% +20.3%
≤30d 7 +9.1% -1.3% 71% 71% +20.3%
≤90d 7 +9.1% -1.3% 71% 71% +20.3%
all 7 +9.1% -1.3% 71% 71% +20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.3% 71% +20.3%
10% -10.7% 57% +8.8%
15% -19.4% 29% -1.8%
20% -27.3% 29% -11.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$5 · ×3.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.98 per $1 lost it wins $8.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$147
Realized+$85
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)7 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) Haiti 80¢ 100¢ $80 $100 +$20 (+25%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 62¢ 57¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-7%)
Exact Score: Morocco 0 - 1 Haiti? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-99%)
Exact Score: Morocco 1 - 1 Haiti? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-99%)
Exact Score: Morocco 0 - 0 Haiti? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $15 +$19 +122%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $31 +$11 +34%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $50 +$15 +29%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $51 +$30 +60%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $85 +$16 +18%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $34 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 35¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Morocco 0 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 2h
Exact Score: Morocco 0 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $31 2h
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) BUY Haiti 80¢ $80 3h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 5h
Exact Score: Morocco 1 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 5h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 6h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $85 6h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $51 6h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 6h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $50 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.76 · official $146.76 (match) · 17 history records