Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:16:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x2227…ec59 sports 135 markets active 7h ago coverage 264d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$645 (-5%) realized −$644 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate49%65W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$64
14 days−$64
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$90
crypto 30% −$556
other 4% −$181
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -44.7% -50.0% 27% 27% -59.7%
≤30d 16 -41.2% -46.8% 31% 31% -48.6%
≤90d 16 -41.2% -46.8% 31% 31% -48.6%
all 133 -12.6% -20.9% 49% 40% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 40% -14.3%
10% -28.5% 29% -22.5%
15% -35.4% 25% -30.0%
20% -41.7% 20% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$47 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

264d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$644
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses65 / 68
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)133 / 135
History coverage264d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 52¢ 55¢ $52 $54 +$2 (+5%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 42¢ 39¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $7 +$8 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $8 +$2 +32%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $14 −$13 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$5 +83%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 −$3 -49%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 +$4 +65%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 $0 -8%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $18 −$8 -48%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $11 −$7 -60%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 29 $26 +$3 +11%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) Dec 13 $863 −$367 -42%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Dec 13 $216 +$51 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Dec 13 $257 +$47 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Dec 13 $179 −$3 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Dec 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Dec 12 $291 −$283 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Dec 12 $211 −$182 -86%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Dec 12 $80 −$80 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Dec 12 $100 +$69 +69%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Dec 12 $100 −$98 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Dec 12 $100 +$83 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Dec 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Dec 12 $48 −$48 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Dec 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 11AM ET Dec 12 $63 +$43 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Dec 12 $60 +$48 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Dec 12 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) Dec 12 $13 +$1 +6%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Dec 12 $46 +$154 +335%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Dec 12 $59 −$1 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Dec 11 $74 −$74 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Dec 11 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) Dec 11 $88 −$88 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Nov 11 $4 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Nov 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Nov 10 $100 +$60 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Nov 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bilibili Gaming win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 10 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Anyone’s Legend win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Nov 09 $100 +$86 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Nov 09 $300 −$8 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Nov 09 $200 −$30 -15%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Nov 09 $100 +$10 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Nov 09 $48 −$48 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $7 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 37h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 38h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 39h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $8 39h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 39h
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 52¢ $44 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 2d
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 52¢ $2 2d
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 52¢ $1 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 2d
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 2d
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 52¢ $4 2d
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 52¢ $0 2d
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 42¢ $51 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $9 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $16 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 26¢ $9 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $18 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 48¢ $14 6d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 22¢ $4 6d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $11 6d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $29 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.92 · official $100.92 (match) · 485 history records