Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:08:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x222a…d786 crypto 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$44 (-19%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +12.0% +1.3% 50% 50% -34.6%
≤30d 6 +12.0% +1.3% 50% 50% -34.6%
≤90d 6 +12.0% +1.3% 50% 50% -34.6%
all 6 +12.0% +1.3% 50% 50% -34.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.3% 50% -34.6%
10% -8.4% 50% -40.8%
15% -17.2% 50% -46.6%
20% -25.4% 50% -51.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$29 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$16 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $83 +$10 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 19 $45 +$31 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $87 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $78 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $76 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 15 history records