Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:24:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

22 0x222d…0562 sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$83 (+39%) realized +$84 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +84% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +67% what you keep after slip

Net edge+67%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$43per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit60%portable

Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+66.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	2	+84.3%	+66.8%	100%	100%	+64.3%
≤90d	2	+84.3%	+66.8%	100%	100%	+64.3%
all	2	+84.3%	+66.8%	100%	100%	+64.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+66.8%	100%	+64.3%
10%	+50.8%	100%	+48.6%
15%	+36.2%	100%	+34.2%
20%	+22.9%	100%	+21.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 61% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +82% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +84% · $-wt +82% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$41 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage

Net worth$109

Realized+$84

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions3

Markets (closed)2 / 5

History coverage18d

Avg bet$43

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	64¢	64¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	Yes	30¢	30¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Yes	24¢	24¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03?	Jun 03	$66	+$50	+75%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	May 30	$35	+$33	+93%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$5	59m
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$5	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	64¢	$101	1h
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03?	BUY Yes	57¢	$66	13d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	51¢	$35	17d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.03 · official $109.03 (match) · 7 history records