Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:14:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x2230…c3b7 sports 110 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,294 (-7%) realized −$2,200 · open −$94
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%46W / 61L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$288per market
Trades / day25.5pace
Fees−$377est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,932now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,687
7 days−$2,112
14 days−$2,470
30 days−$2,470
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$3,081
other 5% +$517
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 -12.0% -20.4% 44% 43% -15.7%
≤30d 107 -14.4% -22.6% 43% 42% -16.7%
≤90d 107 -14.4% -22.6% 43% 42% -16.7%
all 107 -14.4% -22.6% 43% 42% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.6% 42% -16.7%
10% ← realistic here -30.0% 37% -24.6%
15% -36.8% 29% -31.9%
20% -43.0% 23% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -17% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$159 vs −$161 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$1,932
Realized−$2,200
Unrealized−$94
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses46 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$377
Open positions3
Markets (closed)107 / 110
History coverage7d
Avg bet$288
Trades / day25.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce Fenerbahce 37¢ 100¢ $91 $244 +$153 (+169%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 60¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+31%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 39¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce Besiktas 51¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $76 +$14 +18%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $103 −$64 -62%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $308 −$302 -98%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A Jun 19 $153 +$101 +66%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $191 −$187 -98%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $11 −$10 -98%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 19 $9 +$11 +134%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $174 +$329 +188%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $24 +$42 +178%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $8 −$7 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5 Jun 19 $323 −$319 -99%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 18 $165 −$161 -98%
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv Jun 18 $85 +$66 +77%
Dota 2: Hive vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $47 +$13 +27%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $49 +$40 +82%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $267 −$262 -98%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $676 −$670 -99%
Dota 2: Hive vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $27 −$26 -98%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 18 $53 +$31 +60%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys Jun 18 $186 −$181 -98%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 17 $149 −$145 -98%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 17 $736 −$21 -3%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 17 $71 −$70 -98%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $146 −$145 -99%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $396 −$388 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $108 −$107 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $151 −$148 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $419 +$90 +22%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $203 −$200 -98%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $97 −$95 -98%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Hynek Barton Jun 16 $138 −$136 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $848 +$169 +20%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Jun 16 $39 +$11 +27%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua Jun 16 $178 +$33 +18%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 16 $48 −$47 -98%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $349 −$342 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $406 +$111 +27%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $234 −$230 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $107 +$78 +73%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 15 $249 −$246 -99%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 15 $292 +$20 +7%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 15 $587 +$161 +27%
Bu vs. Virtanen: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 15 $528 −$10 -2%
Nottingham 2: Yunchaokete Bu vs Otto Virtanen Jun 15 $530 −$10 -2%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $157 +$152 +97%
Royan: Pierre Delage vs Svyatoslav Gulin Jun 15 $429 +$154 +36%
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Jun 15 $64 +$328 +510%
Brescia: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 15 $277 +$203 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Besiktas 51¢ $41 26m
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Fenerbahce 28¢ $8 28m
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Fenerbahce 28¢ $14 28m
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Fenerbahce 28¢ $6 28m
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Fenerbahce 28¢ $20 28m
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Fenerbahce 28¢ $2 28m
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Fenerbahce 28¢ $1 28m
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Fenerbahce 62¢ $41 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 39¢ $54 3h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner SELL Zero Tenacity 37¢ $36 4h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 64¢ $65 4h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 38¢ $38 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 30¢ $308 4h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 84¢ $76 5h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A BUY eSuba 50¢ $72 11h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A BUY eSuba 72¢ $10 11h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A BUY eSuba 72¢ $71 11h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $191 11h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 2 Winner BUY Coalesce 32¢ $11 11h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 42¢ $2 19h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 42¢ $5 19h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 63¢ $323 19h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 32¢ $165 19h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 34¢ $174 19h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 36¢ $24 20h
Dota 2: Hive vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 78¢ $47 23h
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv BUY Hapoel Tel-Aviv 52¢ $4 24h
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv BUY Hapoel Tel-Aviv 52¢ $8 24h
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv BUY Maccabi Tel-Aviv 48¢ $74 24h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 23¢ $118 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,931.59 · official $1,931.59 (match) · 233 history records