Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:01:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
22 0x2230…eef5 other 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 642d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,392 (-24%) realized −$2,365 · open −$27
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate57%20W / 15L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$679now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$70
14 days+$70
30 days+$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$1,922
politics 28% −$475
world 10% −$268
crypto 5% +$214
sports 4% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +16.4% +5.3% 100% 67% +3.7%
≤30d 3 +16.4% +5.3% 100% 67% +3.7%
≤90d 3 +16.4% +5.3% 100% 67% +3.7%
all 35 -22.0% -29.4% 57% 29% -32.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.4% 29% -32.5%
10% -36.2% 14% -39.0%
15% -42.3% 11% -44.9%
20% -48.0% 9% -50.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -41% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$220 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

642d coverage
Net worth$679
Realized−$2,365
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses20 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Open positions15
Markets (closed)35 / 50
History coverage642d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 95¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 15¢ $50 $62 +$12 (+24%)
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 30¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Brazil be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup? No 79¢ 78¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Yes 37¢ 32¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-15%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $39 −$11 (-22%)
Will Nico Williams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 46¢ $50 $32 −$18 (-36%)
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-11%)
Will Marc Cucurella score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $101 +$24 +24%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July? Jun 19 $160 +$24 +15%
Yoon in jail before July? Jun 19 $215 +$21 +10%
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile by Friday? Jun 16 $140 +$21 +15%
Israel military action against Iran by Friday? Jun 13 $238 −$238 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Jun 12 $200 −$60 -30%
Trump x Elon talk by Monday? Jun 10 $215 +$23 +11%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 07 $200 +$15 +7%
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? Jun 04 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $200 +$11 +6%
Will the Liberal–National Coalition win between 45 and 49 seats? Jun 02 $200 +$3 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 22 $368 +$33 +9%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? May 17 $353 +$15 +4%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by next Tuesday? May 14 $550 +$46 +8%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? May 09 $116 +$10 +9%
Will the next Pope be from Africa? May 09 $120 +$16 +13%
Celsius founder sentenced to 20+ years? May 09 $247 +$33 +13%
Will Peter Dutton be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the 20 May 06 $369 +$23 +6%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in New Brunswick in the May 01 $104 +$5 +5%
Will the Conservative Party win the popular vote in Canada's next elec Apr 29 $120 +$49 +41%
Trump wins every swing state? Apr 23 $200 −$200 -100%
East coast port strike in January? Apr 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Apr 23 $500 −$500 -100%
Will 'Wicked' gross less than $95m opening weekend? Apr 23 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Trump lower tariffs on China by April 30? Apr 23 $120 −$16 -14%
Will Trump say "trans" during Michigan rally on Nov 4? Nov 05 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Taylor Swift attend Kamala's Pennsylvania rally? Nov 04 $23 +$16 +69%
Will another driver win the Brazilian Grand Prix? Nov 04 $230 −$230 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the Brazilian Grand Prix? Nov 03 $179 −$155 -87%
Another Iran strike on Israel in October? Nov 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in October? Oct 28 $200 +$200 +100%
Will GD win a majority in Georgia parliamentary election? Oct 28 $510 +$322 +63%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2024 F1 season? Oct 26 $250 −$191 -76%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 F1 season? Oct 26 $608 −$365 -60%
Will Lando Norris win the 2024 F1 season? Oct 26 $1,500 −$493 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marc Cucurella score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $16 1h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 1h
Will Brazil be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup BUY No 79¢ $50 4d
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 4d
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 4d
Will Nico Williams score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 4d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 4d
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 4d
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 4d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 4d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 30¢ $51 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $100 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 4d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 4d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July? BUY No 87¢ $160 372d
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile by Friday? BUY No 87¢ $140 376d
Israel military action against Iran by Friday? BUY No 88¢ $238 376d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York SELL No 58¢ $140 376d
Trump x Elon talk by Monday? BUY No 90¢ $215 382d
Yoon in jail before July? BUY No 91¢ $215 384d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? BUY No 93¢ $200 386d
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY No 95¢ $200 386d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York BUY No 83¢ $200 386d
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 92¢ $368 402d
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 98¢ $368 402d
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 94¢ $353 405d
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by next Tuesday? SELL No 100¢ $349 405d
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by next Tuesday? BUY No 97¢ $338 410d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $678.81 · official $678.83 (match) · 126 history records