Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:21:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x2233…033c politics 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$31 (+1%) realized +$21 · open +$10
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$287per market
Trades / day46.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$2,886now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 91% +$4
sports 7% −$121
world 1% +$9
other 1% −$11
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-50.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -45.3% -50.6% 25% 25% -61.0%
≤30d 4 -45.3% -50.6% 25% 25% -61.0%
≤90d 4 -45.3% -50.6% 25% 25% -61.0%
all 4 -45.3% -50.6% 25% 25% -61.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -50.6% 25% -61.0%
10% ← realistic here -55.3% 25% -64.7%
15% -59.6% 25% -68.1%
20% -63.6% 25% -71.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -57% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$62 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$2,886
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)4 / 11
History coverage2d
Avg bet$287
Trades / day46.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Yes 27¢ 27¢ $2,822 $2,834 +$11 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes $17 $28 +$11 (+63%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? Yes 47¢ 34¢ $13 $9 −$3 (-27%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by June 30, 2026? Yes $11 $7 −$4 (-40%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes $5 $5 −$1 (-11%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes $4 $2 −$2 (-56%)
Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30? Yes $2 $1 −$2 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 26 $46 +$54 +119%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 25 $88 −$87 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 25 $89 −$88 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $16 −$11 -67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 1m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $128 4h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 6h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $78 6h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 6h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $95 6h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $130 6h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $210 9h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $50 9h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 9h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 10h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 10h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 10h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $199 12h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $14 13h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $47 13h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $29 13h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $55 14h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $92 15h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $106 15h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 16h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 16h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 19h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $78 19h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 19h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 20h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $52 21h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 22h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 23h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes $6 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,885.67 · official $2,885.53 (match) · 80 history records