Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:30:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x223a…9223 world 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 297d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate30%18W / 43L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$3
politics 19% $0
other 17% +$5
crypto 5% −$1
culture 4% $0
sports 4% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -2.0% -11.4% 22% 11% -10.5%
≤30d 14 -1.3% -10.7% 29% 7% -10.1%
≤90d 14 -1.3% -10.7% 29% 7% -10.1%
all 61 -0.4% -9.8% 30% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 3% -9.4%
10% -18.5% 3% -18.1%
15% -26.3% 2% -26.0%
20% -33.6% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

297d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses18 / 43
Open positions2
Markets (closed)61 / 63
History coverage297d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 81¢ 81¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $35 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $15 −$5 -32%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $87 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $12 −$1 -7%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $24 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $13 +$3 +24%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $88 −$1 -1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $39 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $39 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Feb 01 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 20 $11 $0 +1%
Will Brighton win on 2025-12-03? Dec 14 $7 +$5 +72%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 14 $13 $0 -2%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 24 $21 $0 -1%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 21 $7 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 19 $6 $0 +3%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Oct 01 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump talk to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in September? Sep 30 $13 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Sep 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $18 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 29 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $14 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Sep 25 $7 $0 -3%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike Syria by September 30? Sep 25 $1 $0 +2%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 25 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Sep 24 $26 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? Sep 18 $1 $0 -26%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 16 $5 $0 -1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 14 $8 $0 +3%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 11 $24 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 15? Sep 10 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $36 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $35 17h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $26 20h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $9 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $35 34h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $35 35h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $8 39h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $27 39h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $27 40h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $8 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $10 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $15 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $11 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $23 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $14 47h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 13¢ $3 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 13¢ $7 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $8 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $7 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $44 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $44 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $15 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $15 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $12 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $43 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $43 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $10 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $14 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.20 · official $35.86 (match) · 296 history records