Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:31:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x223b…85df world 100 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,045 (+9%) realized +$1,275 · open −$230
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate29%25W / 60L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days−$84
14 days−$274
30 days−$1,104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 85% −$238
other 7% −$73
politics 4% −$119
sports 3% −$162
crypto 1% −$36
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +84.0% +66.4% 19% 19% -24.7%
≤30d 30 +13.6% +2.7% 13% 13% -44.5%
≤90d 68 -0.3% -9.8% 29% 24% -15.4%
all 85 -0.4% -9.9% 29% 25% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 25% -13.9%
10% -18.5% 19% -22.1%
15% -26.4% 18% -29.6%
20% -33.6% 14% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$44 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized+$1,275
Unrealized−$230
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses25 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions15
Markets (closed)85 / 100
History coverage118d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $40 $34 −$6 (-16%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+19%)
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $100 $23 −$77 (-77%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-28%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 10¢ 13¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+37%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 4¢ $30 $9 −$21 (-69%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? No 7¢ 1¢ $65 $8 −$57 (-88%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 71¢ 80¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+14%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 16¢ 1¢ $50 $3 −$47 (-95%)
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-48%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-72%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $15 $1 −$14 (-94%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 15 $21 +$18 +87%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 15 $6 +$158 +2719%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 14 $80 −$61 -77%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $31 +$45 +146%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 12 $10 −$5 -52%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Jun 12 $20 −$8 -38%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? Jun 11 $40 −$23 -58%
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Jun 11 $50 −$12 -25%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 11 $393 −$137 -35%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 11 $41 −$2 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 05 $353 −$185 -52%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $127 −$37 -29%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? May 28 $50 −$11 -21%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 26 $643 −$643 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 25 $420 −$41 -10%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $100 −$28 -28%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $110 −$110 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $300 +$223 +74%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 20 $305 −$60 -20%
Will Trump say "Kamikaze" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Trump say "Cookie" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 11 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 10 $62 −$18 -29%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 10 $52 −$11 -22%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 09 $120 +$848 +707%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 04 $150 −$150 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $558 −$166 -30%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Apr 25 $7 −$7 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Apr 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 24 $366 −$150 -41%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $245 −$228 -93%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $100 −$6 -6%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 21 $200 +$10 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $70 +$52 +74%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $100 +$104 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 14 $20 −$19 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 14 $20 +$8 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 21h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $41 22h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 23h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 25h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 25h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 25h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 25h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $10 30h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $20 34h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 67¢ $39 2d
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 36¢ $21 2d
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 41¢ $164 2d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $20 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 71¢ $4 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 2d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 85¢ $227 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 85¢ $334 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 85¢ $322 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 77¢ $800 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 86¢ $1,480 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr SELL Yes 3¢ $19 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 23¢ $75 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $76 4d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY No 0¢ $5 5d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.84 · official $158.88 (match) · 285 history records