Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:38:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x223d…2ae3 crypto 667 markets active 19h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate71%472W / 195L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$8
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -4.2% -13.3% 70% 70% -12.8%
≤30d 311 -3.2% -12.4% 71% 71% -12.1%
≤90d 667 -3.4% -12.6% 71% 70% -12.1%
all 667 -3.4% -12.6% 71% 70% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 70% -12.1%
10% -20.9% 57% -20.5%
15% -28.6% 28% -28.2%
20% -35.6% 13% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses472 / 195
Open positions0
Markets (closed)667 / 667
History coverage56d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 667 Trades
no open positions (188 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1206 history records