Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:15:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

22
0x223f…58ce
sports · 53 markets active 3h ago
3.5score
+$84 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$57 · open −$28
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$75
Realized+$57
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses15 / 29
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions9
Markets (closed)44 / 53
History coverage27d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 9 History 44 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days−$32
14 days−$13
30 days+$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Golden Knights 48¢ 48¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 41¢ 20¢ $30 $14 −$16 (-52%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 69¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Yes 55¢ 26¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-54%)
Will Ivar Stenberg be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-43%)
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-62%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Golden Knights 43¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Golden Knights 15¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 +$18 +172%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$13 +262%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$40 +980%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $33 −$22 -65%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $132 −$10 -8%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $30 +$33 +109%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $40 +$39 +99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $10 +$7 +65%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $5 +$8 +158%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $55 −$31 -57%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 03 $10 +$2 +23%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $41 +$57 +139%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Eastern Conference? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5 Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will ICEMAN debut No.1 on Billboard 200? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in May? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 550k and 600k? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 300k and 350k? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $20 +$41 +202%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 29 $25 +$24 +93%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Western Conference? May 27 $5 +$12 +226%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 23 $5 +$1 +21%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $20 −$11 -55%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 21 $5 +$8 +165%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $10 +$20 +197%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 85% +$44
other 11% +$12
culture 3% −$22
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $15 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 26¢ $3 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 86¢ $20 3d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 43¢ $20 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $10 4d
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4d
Will Ivar Stenberg be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 4d
Will Ivar Stenberg be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 4d
Will Ivar Stenberg be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 4d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Hurricanes 100¢ $168 4d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 88¢ $52 4d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 15¢ $10 4d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 78¢ $20 4d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 78¢ $20 4d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 51¢ $30 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 100¢ $64 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +15.2% +4.3% 24% 24% -24.0%
≤30d 44 +3.1% -6.7% 34% 34% +0.0%
≤90d 44 +3.1% -6.7% 34% 34% +0.0%
all 44 +3.1% -6.7% 34% 34% +0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 34% +0.0%
10% -15.6% 32% -9.5%
15% -23.8% 30% -18.3%
20% -31.3% 30% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.01 · official $75.01 (match) · 105 history records