Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:01:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
22 0x2248…cad0 sports 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$458 (+2%) realized +$409 · open +$49
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%17W / 15L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$558per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$129est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$449now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$124
14 days+$43
30 days−$1,015
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$4,099
sports 37% +$4,931
crypto 14% +$990
politics 5% +$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +31.0% +18.5% 64% 64% -8.7%
≤30d 29 +0.6% -8.9% 52% 48% -14.8%
≤90d 29 +0.6% -8.9% 52% 48% -14.8%
all 32 +8.0% -2.3% 53% 50% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.3% 50% -0.6%
10% -11.6% 47% -10.1%
15% -20.2% 47% -18.8%
20% -28.0% 41% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$508) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$551 vs −$501 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$449
Realized+$409
Unrealized+$49
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses17 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$129
Open positions3
Markets (closed)32 / 35
History coverage148d
Avg bet$558
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $200 $245 +$45 (+23%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $100 $118 +$18 (+18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $100 $86 −$14 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $1,014 +$743 +73%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $1,014 +$826 +81%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5,684 −$3,674 -65%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $509 −$18 -4%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,166 +$1,482 +68%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $49 +$28 +56%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $508 +$610 +120%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $508 +$513 +101%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $204 +$363 +178%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $203 +$162 +80%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $395 +$176 +44%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $204 −$200 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $400 −$393 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $500 −$492 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $504 −$498 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $329 +$371 +113%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 12 $102 −$99 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $204 +$322 +158%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $305 +$307 +101%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $103 −$84 -82%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $731 −$720 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $6 +$1 +18%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $306 −$235 -77%
Will Song Yadong win by KO or TKO? May 30 $203 −$203 -100%
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? May 30 $202 +$92 +46%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) May 30 $102 +$8 +8%
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? Feb 03 $501 +$572 +114%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 02 $500 −$499 -100%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $1,250 +$2,788 +223%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 95¢ $1,757 30m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 96¢ $1,840 31m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1,014 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $1,014 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $65 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $282 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $33 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $5 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $1 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $5 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $150 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $34 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $567 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $52 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $15 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $6 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $7 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $227 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $24 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $73 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $47 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $1,040 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 33¢ $12 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 33¢ $15 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 33¢ $0 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 33¢ $5 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 33¢ $82 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 33¢ $10 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 33¢ $7 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 33¢ $14 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $449.33 · official $449.33 (match) · 139 history records