Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:17:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

22
0x224a…a3d5
sports · 131 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$64,129 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$64,107 · open +$22
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$340,125
Realized+$64,107
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses117 / 338
Whale WR (big bets)23%
Est. fees paid−$9,856
Open positions60
Markets (closed)455 / 131
Avg bet$8,811
Trades / day2666.0
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 60 History 455 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$64,107
7 days+$64,107
14 days+$64,107
30 days+$64,107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $23,533 $22,970 −$563 (-2%)
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Qatar 68¢ 66¢ $22,921 $22,383 −$538 (-2%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Qatar 42¢ 40¢ $19,440 $18,746 −$694 (-4%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 50¢ 52¢ $17,100 $17,979 +$879 (+5%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? No 42¢ 40¢ $16,421 $15,834 −$586 (-4%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Josh Hokit 77¢ 78¢ $14,962 $15,059 +$97 (+1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? No 46¢ 46¢ $14,411 $14,568 +$157 (+1%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Over 69¢ 68¢ $11,560 $11,470 −$89 (-1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Under 48¢ 46¢ $10,883 $10,429 −$453 (-4%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 50¢ 52¢ $9,029 $9,390 +$361 (+4%)
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) St. Louis Cardinals 46¢ 100¢ $3,179 $6,959 +$3,780 (+119%)
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Knicks 47¢ 100¢ $3,131 $6,612 +$3,481 (+111%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Over 50¢ 100¢ $2,941 $5,884 +$2,943 (+100%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Over 45¢ 100¢ $2,594 $5,767 +$3,172 (+122%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 4.5 Over 49¢ 100¢ $2,666 $5,447 +$2,781 (+104%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 34¢ 100¢ $1,815 $5,392 +$3,577 (+197%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Netherlands 25¢ 26¢ $5,166 $5,269 +$103 (+2%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ 100¢ $2,835 $4,817 +$1,983 (+70%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Pittsburgh Pirates 58¢ 100¢ $2,718 $4,686 +$1,968 (+72%)
Spread: Chicago Sky (-6.5) Connecticut Sun 50¢ 100¢ $2,332 $4,646 +$2,315 (+99%)
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Spurs 50¢ 100¢ $2,287 $4,576 +$2,290 (+100%)
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Knicks 39¢ 100¢ $1,720 $4,366 +$2,646 (+154%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? No 43¢ 42¢ $4,227 $4,178 −$49 (-1%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 50¢ $4,000 $4,041 +$41 (+1%)
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 174.5 Under 52¢ 100¢ $2,093 $4,026 +$1,932 (+92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 12 $9,957 −$9,957 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $2,941 +$2,943 +100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $2,594 +$3,172 +122%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $68 −$68 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 12 $1,474 −$1,474 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 12 $12,435 −$12,435 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 12 $13,272 −$13,272 -100%
Spread: Chicago Sky (-6.5) Jun 12 $967 −$967 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 12 $2,287 +$2,290 +100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 12 $1,720 +$2,646 +154%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 174.5 Jun 12 $2,093 +$1,932 +92%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $2,192 +$1,723 +79%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 12 $13,115 −$13,115 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 13.5 Jun 12 $95 −$95 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 12 $4,838 −$4,838 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $1,266 +$1,317 +104%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 Jun 12 $989 +$1,364 +138%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-2.5) Jun 12 $412 −$412 -100%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) Jun 12 $11,003 −$11,003 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 172.5 Jun 12 $873 +$1,067 +122%
1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 12 $872 +$983 +113%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 211.5 Jun 12 $868 +$933 +107%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 12 $1,199 −$1,199 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 12 $1,068 −$1,068 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 12 $720 +$750 +104%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $585 +$866 +148%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 12 $441 +$937 +212%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 12 $682 −$682 -100%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 12 $636 −$636 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $570 +$593 +104%
Connecticut Sun vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 164.5 Jun 12 $382 −$382 -100%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 12 $515 +$355 +69%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 12 $395 +$449 +114%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-1.5) Jun 12 $366 −$366 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $4,477 −$4,477 -100%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $376 +$211 +56%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-4.5) Jun 12 $234 +$310 +133%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $235 +$307 +130%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5) Jun 12 $202 +$236 +117%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 12 $300 +$100 +33%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 12 $114 −$114 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 12.5 Jun 12 $2,261 −$2,261 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 12 $255 +$101 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 57% +$818,816
other 43% −$25,357
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $2 6m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $2 6m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $2 6m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $84 6m
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 64¢ $4 9m
Toronto Argonauts vs. Montreal Alouettes BUY Toronto Argonauts 25¢ $3 10m
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 64¢ $330 18m
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 64¢ $32 27m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $6 39m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $865 41m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $24 46m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $64 50m
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 64¢ $89 50m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $13 51m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 46¢ $9,904 57m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 46¢ $306 57m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 46¢ $21 57m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 46¢ $23 57m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 46¢ $8 58m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 46¢ $21 58m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 46¢ $4,128 58m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $9 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 42¢ $2,494 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Qatar 68¢ $900 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Qatar 68¢ $415 1h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 64¢ $4 1h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 64¢ $7 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 42¢ $3,319 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 42¢ $13,627 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-48.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 455 -42.6% -48.1% 26% 26% -6.3%
≤30d 455 -42.6% -48.1% 26% 26% -6.3%
≤90d 455 -42.6% -48.1% 26% 26% -6.3%
all 455 -42.6% -48.1% 26% 26% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2666.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -48.1% 26% -6.3%
10% -53.0% 25% -15.3%
15% ← realistic here -57.6% 23% -23.5%
20% -61.7% 20% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $340,125.22 · official $340,124.69 (match) · 3500 history records