Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:11:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
22 0x224d…e0e7 world 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$3,901 (+8%) realized +$2,182 · open +$1,719
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate100%6W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$2,860per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$32,771now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$786
30 days+$2,102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 79% +$3,558
other 21% +$263
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 +13.3% +2.5% 100% 50% -0.2%
≤90d 6 +13.3% +2.5% 100% 50% -0.2%
all 6 +13.3% +2.5% 100% 50% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.5% 50% -0.2%
10% ← realistic here -7.3% 17% -9.8%
15% -16.2% 0% -18.5%
20% -24.4% 0% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$350 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$32,771
Realized+$2,182
Unrealized+$1,719
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses6 / 0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)6 / 18
History coverage42d
Avg bet$2,860
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 85¢ 98¢ $7,879 $9,102 +$1,223 (+16%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 93¢ 94¢ $6,289 $6,378 +$90 (+1%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 93¢ $5,191 $5,211 +$20 (+0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $2,152 $2,205 +$54 (+2%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 91¢ 95¢ $2,052 $2,138 +$86 (+4%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 82¢ 90¢ $1,758 $1,940 +$182 (+10%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 86¢ $1,891 $1,816 −$74 (-4%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $1,605 $1,709 +$104 (+6%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 86¢ $1,183 $1,163 −$20 (-2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $804 $854 +$50 (+6%)
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? No 60¢ 60¢ $218 $220 +$2 (+1%)
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No 61¢ 69¢ $30 $35 +$4 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $4,519 +$556 +12%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $161 +$55 +34%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3,300 +$174 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,197 +$228 +10%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,605 +$135 +5%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $7,650 +$953 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $2,447 1h
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? BUY No 60¢ $5 7h
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? BUY No 60¢ $1 34h
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? BUY No 60¢ $0 37h
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? BUY No 61¢ $30 43h
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? BUY No 60¢ $8 45h
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? BUY No 60¢ $180 45h
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? BUY No 60¢ $0 47h
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? BUY No 60¢ $12 2d
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? BUY No 60¢ $12 2d
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? BUY No 60¢ $0 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $677 4d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $22 4d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $22 4d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $462 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $3,842 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $216 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $3,474 9d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 61¢ $119 12d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $447 15d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $1,489 15d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $1,914 17d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $2,131 17d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $1,779 22d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $2,968 23d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $3,557 23d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $1,440 25d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $2,724 26d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $316 26d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? BUY No 89¢ $15 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32,770.98 · official $32,770.99 (match) · 144 history records