Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:43:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x2250…88f9 crypto 167 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$15 (-5%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate58%97W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$42
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -4.4% -13.5% 64% 62% -12.9%
≤30d 134 -0.2% -9.7% 57% 55% -28.6%
≤90d 167 +1.0% -8.6% 58% 56% -15.3%
all 167 +1.0% -8.6% 58% 56% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 56% -15.3%
10% -17.4% 48% -23.4%
15% -25.4% 37% -30.8%
20% -32.7% 18% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses97 / 70
Open positions0
Markets (closed)167 / 167
History coverage34d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 167 Trades
no open positions (39 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 300 history records