Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:34:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x2256…1db0 world 83 markets active 2h ago coverage 488d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate27%22W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$0
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$4
politics 23% +$1
other 16% −$1
sports 11% −$11
economics 2% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.3% -9.8% 43% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 30 -3.6% -12.8% 23% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 81 -0.5% -10.0% 27% 4% -9.6%
all 82 -1.7% -11.1% 27% 4% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 4% -9.9%
10% -19.6% 2% -18.5%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

488d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses22 / 60
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)82 / 83
History coverage488d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $88 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $11 $0 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $78 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $64 +$1 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $32 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $100 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $67 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $50 −$4 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $3 −$1 -23%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $9 +$1 +9%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $78 −$1 -1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $44 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $40 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $36 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $25 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $50 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $9 −$1 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $41 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $79 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $19 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 24 $77 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $45 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $42 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $51 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 18 $42 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 18 $25 −$2 -7%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 18 $86 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 17 $5 +$1 +22%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $1 $0 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $80 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $2 $0 +29%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $74 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $39 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $78 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $41 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $4 $0 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $74 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $77 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $73 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $32 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 8h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $11 17h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 32h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 32h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $33 35h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $32 39h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $28 46h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $28 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $26 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $5 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $32 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $35 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $35 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $32 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $32 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $7 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $25 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $8 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $23 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 38¢ $14 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 38¢ $21 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 38¢ $35 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $17 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.05 · official $32.38 (match) · 364 history records