Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:25:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x2259…5605 other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 274d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$98 (-10%) realized −$85 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%2W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$751now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$47
crypto 3% +$6
politics 3% −$29
world 1% −$10
tech 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-61.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -23.8% -31.1% 33% 0% -33.9%
≤30d 7 -25.1% -32.2% 29% 0% -34.1%
≤90d 11 -52.3% -56.9% 18% 0% -62.0%
all 13 -57.1% -61.2% 15% 0% -68.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -61.2% 0% -68.8%
10% -64.9% 0% -71.8%
15% -68.3% 0% -74.5%
20% -71.4% 0% -77.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -57% · $-wt -66% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -94% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$751
Realized−$85
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses2 / 11
Open positions8
Markets (closed)13 / 21
History coverage274d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $141 $236 +$95 (+68%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $296 $202 −$94 (-32%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $166 $160 −$6 (-4%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $102 $95 −$7 (-7%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $21 $37 +$16 (+77%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $22 $10 −$12 (-53%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $12 $7 −$5 (-45%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $5 −$4 -76%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $20 −$10 -52%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -20%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3 $0 -8%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -33%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $9 −$9 -96%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 15 $5 −$3 -67%
Milei out as President of Argentina in 2025? Sep 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $50 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $30 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $26 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $72 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 7h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 7h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $11 7h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $38 35h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $62 35h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 40h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 40h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 5d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 5d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $10 5d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $11 5d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $11 6d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 6d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 6d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 8d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $30 8d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 8d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 8d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $99 8d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $50 9d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $17 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $750.57 · official $751.32 (match) · 198 history records