Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:06:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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22 0x225b…05ee crypto 1444 markets active 0h ago coverage 147d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 147d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,831 (-9%) realized −$3,070 · open +$239
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%551W / 877L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day14.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$520now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,434
7 days−$6,434
14 days−$6,434
30 days−$6,434
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$4,007
sports 2% −$119
other 1% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 205 -27.9% -34.8% 30% 30% -70.2%
≤30d 205 -27.9% -34.8% 30% 30% -70.2%
≤90d 294 -16.6% -24.6% 35% 35% -50.8%
all 1428 -13.2% -21.4% 39% 38% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 38% -21.7%
10% -29.0% 36% -29.2%
15% -35.8% 34% -36.0%
20% -42.1% 31% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$22 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$520
Realized−$3,070
Unrealized+$239
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses551 / 877
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions16
Markets (closed)1428 / 1444
History coverage147d ⚠
Avg bet$23
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 1428 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Up 22¢ 50¢ $50 $115 +$65 (+130%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $90 $90 +$0 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Up 8¢ 50¢ $10 $63 +$53 (+531%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 37¢ 50¢ $30 $40 +$10 (+34%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Down 22¢ 50¢ $15 $34 +$19 (+125%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Up 31¢ 50¢ $20 $33 +$13 (+63%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Down 32¢ 50¢ $20 $31 +$11 (+55%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Down 12¢ 50¢ $7 $29 +$22 (+313%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Down 18¢ 50¢ $9 $24 +$15 (+175%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 23¢ 50¢ $9 $20 +$11 (+123%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Up 23¢ 50¢ $7 $15 +$8 (+120%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Down 18¢ 50¢ $5 $14 +$9 (+175%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Up 38¢ 50¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+33%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Down 23¢ 50¢ $1 $3 +$1 (+115%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Up 36¢ 50¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+40%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$6 +59%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 22 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 22 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 22 $61 +$42 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$111 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 22 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 22 $101 +$29 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 22 $239 +$242 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 22 $2 +$3 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 22 $198 −$198 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 22 $242 −$242 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 22 $186 +$26 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $77 +$30 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $162 −$162 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 22 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 22 $105 +$128 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 21 $15 +$17 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$2 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $3 +$6 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$10 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$12 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$7 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $4 +$10 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$12 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $53 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $103 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $61 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $0 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $211 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $100 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $7 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $457 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $147 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $108 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $21 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $129 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $321 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $160 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $239 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $160 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $212 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $186 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $242 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $120 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $7 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $519.55 · official $519.55 (match) · 3500 history records