Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:47:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

22 0x225e…ac2d sports 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$507 (+19%) realized +$507 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip

Net edge+4%after slip

Net WR84%break-even

Win rate84%27W / 5L

Drawdown22%max

Avg bet$84per market

Trades / day4.0pace

Fees−$11est.

Kalshi-fit56%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$274

7 days+$318

14 days+$517

30 days+$517

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +84%

net ROI/market (all)+8.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	+20.4%	+8.9%	80%	80%	+7.6%
≤30d	32	+19.9%	+8.5%	84%	84%	+7.9%
≤90d	32	+19.9%	+8.5%	84%	84%	+7.9%
all	32	+19.9%	+8.5%	84%	84%	+7.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+8.5%	84%	+7.9%
10%	-1.9%	62%	-2.5%
15%	-11.4%	41%	-11.9%
20%	-20.1%	12%	-20.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +20% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +17% → late +23% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$30 vs −$61 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×2.68 per $1 lost it wins $2.68

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$507

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)84%

Wins / losses27 / 5

Est. fees paid−$11

Open positions0

Markets (closed)32 / 32

History coverage14d

Avg bet$84

Trades / day4.0

Drawdown22%

Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 32 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance	Jun 29	$50	−$50	-100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$60	+$67	+112%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5	Jun 29	$99	+$15	+15%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$149	+$42	+28%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5	Jun 29	$50	+$19	+38%
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs	Jun 29	$35	+$17	+49%
Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B	Jun 29	$50	+$22	+44%
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Millennium Esports (BO3) - Un	Jun 29	$50	+$17	+34%
Counter-Strike: Julie&cie vs eternal premium (BO3) - European Pro Leag	Jun 29	$100	+$36	+36%
Games Total: O/U 4.5	Jun 29	$100	+$29	+29%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	Jun 28	$51	+$34	+67%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$75	+$27	+36%
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ALKA (BO3) - CCT South America Series	Jun 27	$84	−$84	-100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$122	+$35	+29%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$149	+$54	+36%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$144	+$26	+18%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$99	−$99	-100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$50	−$24	-48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$67	+$103	+152%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$99	+$33	+33%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5	Jun 22	$50	+$20	+40%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5	Jun 22	$50	+$12	+24%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla	Jun 21	$99	+$46	+46%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner	Jun 21	$50	+$8	+16%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	Jun 20	$50	−$50	-100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5	Jun 20	$149	+$32	+22%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5	Jun 19	$100	+$11	+11%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$135	+$23	+17%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$120	+$15	+12%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$99	+$22	+23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$66	+$33	+50%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$39	+$26	+67%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance	BUY Germany	52¢	$50	20m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	SELL No	99¢	$126	1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	98¢	$114	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	BUY No	46¢	$60	1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	85¢	$99	2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	SELL No	92¢	$191	4h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	99¢	$69	4h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	71¢	$50	5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY No	71¢	$149	6h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs	SELL Prestige	100¢	$52	7h
Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B	SELL Ilbirs eSports	100¢	$72	8h
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Millennium Esports (BO3) - Un	SELL Millennium Esports	100¢	$67	11h
Counter-Strike: Julie&cie vs eternal premium (BO3) - European Pro Leag	SELL eternal premium	100¢	$135	11h
Games Total: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	77¢	$100	20h
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Millennium Esports (BO3) - Un	BUY Millennium Esports	74¢	$50	20h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs	BUY Prestige	66¢	$35	20h
Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B	BUY Ilbirs eSports	69¢	$50	21h
Counter-Strike: Julie&cie vs eternal premium (BO3) - European Pro Leag	BUY eternal premium	73¢	$100	22h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	59¢	$51	32h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?	SELL No	100¢	$101	46h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY No	73¢	$75	47h
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ALKA (BO3) - CCT South America Series	BUY paiN Academy	44¢	$25	2d
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ALKA (BO3) - CCT South America Series	BUY paiN Academy	55¢	$59	2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	77¢	$122	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	73¢	$149	2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	SELL No	100¢	$171	3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	84¢	$144	3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	SELL No	26¢	$26	3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	75¢	$99	4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	49¢	$50	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 67 history records