Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:53:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x2261…ffd1 crypto 195 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (99 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$42 (-3%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate56%110W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day99.4pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$44
crypto 39% −$11
other 3% −$13
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (99 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 195 -2.6% -11.9% 56% 45% -14.1%
≤30d 195 -2.6% -11.9% 56% 45% -14.1%
≤90d 195 -2.6% -11.9% 56% 45% -14.1%
all 195 -2.6% -11.9% 56% 45% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover99.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 45% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 29% -22.4%
15% -28.0% 17% -29.9%
20% -35.1% 9% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses110 / 85
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)195 / 195
History coverage5d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day99.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 195 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series Jun 27 $10 −$3 -31%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu Jun 27 $66 +$20 +31%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $15 −$9 -59%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 27 $25 +$6 +22%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $41 −$6 -16%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $18 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$1 -31%
Valorant: YFT Esports vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North Ameri Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $8 −$2 -25%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +48%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $16 −$12 -80%
Valorant: Ghools Esports vs Team Liquid Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $5 +$1 +26%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $23 +$1 +3%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $24 −$3 -12%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $10 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $12 −$10 -81%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs MIBR Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $13 +$3 +23%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick W Jun 25 $4 −$2 -51%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $21 −$7 -33%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $32 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $11 +$2 +16%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $10 +$5 +49%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 25 $1 −$1 -78%
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam Jun 25 $5 +$1 +11%
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $1 $0 -24%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $15 −$7 -43%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -87%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$6 -57%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $10 −$8 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +90%
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 24 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +50%
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs MIBR Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $1 $0 +18%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry Jun 24 $5 +$2 +40%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Mandatory (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A Jun 24 $10 −$3 -28%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $8 $0 -4%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $12 −$1 -9%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $30 +$14 +45%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $10 +$8 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series SELL Game Hunters 99¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series BUY Game Hunters 78¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series SELL Game Hunters 9¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series BUY Game Hunters 70¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Yellow Submarine 100¢ $52 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 81¢ $5 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 88¢ $10 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 58¢ $20 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Yellow Submarine 60¢ $19 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu SELL Yellow Submarine 49¢ $15 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 33¢ $10 4h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 1¢ $0 4h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 40¢ $5 4h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 42¢ $5 4h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 61¢ $10 4h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Yellow Submarine 61¢ $10 4h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 38¢ $6 4h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 31¢ $5 4h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN SELL Sharks 70¢ $31 5h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Sharks 56¢ $10 5h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Sharks 57¢ $15 5h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL Natus Vincere 12¢ $3 5h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $5 5h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Natus Vincere 72¢ $10 5h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL HULIGANI 37¢ $14 6h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY HULIGANI 27¢ $11 6h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL Natus Vincere 63¢ $12 6h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Natus Vincere 51¢ $10 7h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL HULIGANI 48¢ $6 7h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY HULIGANI 42¢ $5 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 607 history records