Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:42:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
22 0x2269…6233 sports 764 markets active 0h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,057 (+1%) realized +$5,410 · open −$353
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate67%514W / 248L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$477per market
Trades / day19.1pace
Fees−$2,384est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$1,147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$117
7 days−$10,613
14 days−$6,507
30 days+$2,825
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$5,523
other 14% −$624
crypto 5% −$1,949
finance 4% +$62
world 0% −$27
politics 0% +$72
tech 0% −$151
culture 0% +$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -24.7% -31.9% 51% 45% -23.3%
≤30d 215 +0.8% -8.8% 67% 63% -7.7%
≤90d 448 +1.0% -8.6% 70% 61% -8.2%
all 762 -1.3% -10.7% 67% 53% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 53% -8.7%
10% -19.2% 34% -17.4%
15% -27.0% 19% -25.4%
20% -34.2% 9% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$633) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$124 vs −$244 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$1,147
Realized+$5,410
Unrealized−$353
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses514 / 248
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$2,384
Open positions2
Markets (closed)762 / 764
History coverage149d
Avg bet$477
Trades / day19.1
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 762 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 40¢ 28¢ $1,200 $855 −$345 (-29%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 60¢ 58¢ $300 $292 −$7 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $104 −$94 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $411 +$53 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $508 +$26 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $154 −$70 -46%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5,402 +$500 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $104 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $205 +$23 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$23 +45%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,850 −$1,900 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $312 −$305 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $207 +$35 +17%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $1,389 −$235 -17%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? Jun 17 $346 −$346 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $630 −$630 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $1,125 +$705 +63%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $502 −$502 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $299 −$299 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $363 +$137 +38%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $30 +$1 +3%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $366 +$134 +37%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4,378 +$2,212 +50%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3,925 +$442 +11%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4,048 +$694 +17%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $610 −$494 -81%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $630 +$74 +12%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $508 −$391 -77%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $441 +$53 +12%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $628 +$531 +84%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $509 +$653 +128%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $302 −$302 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $303 −$303 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 15 $405 −$405 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 15 $165 −$165 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $360 −$360 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $330 −$330 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 15 $375 −$375 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $350 −$350 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 15 $390 −$390 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 15 $254 −$254 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $323 −$285 -88%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $643 +$401 +62%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $417 +$82 +20%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $279 −$279 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $304 −$304 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $404 −$404 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $325 −$325 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $503 −$503 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Jun 14 $505 −$505 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 14 $142 −$142 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider Jun 14 $488 −$488 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $9 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 31m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $1,200 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $20 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $16 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $8 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $6 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $12 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $3 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $8 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $8 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $17 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $3 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $8 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $17 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $322 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $308 50m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $182 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $316 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $302 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $111 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $53 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $47 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $17 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,147.19 · official $1,147.49 (match) · 3070 history records