Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:00:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
22 0x226b…bb68 crypto 404 markets active 2d ago coverage 231d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,806 (-15%) realized −$1,806 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate20%80W / 324L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$136est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 231d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$3,536
crypto 42% −$274
other 1% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-33.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -8.1% -16.9% 16% 16% +21.1%
≤30d 188 -23.9% -31.1% 13% 13% -54.2%
≤90d 362 -34.7% -40.9% 14% 13% -52.8%
all 404 -26.6% -33.6% 20% 18% -42.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.6% 18% -42.0%
10% -39.9% 17% -47.6%
15% -45.7% 16% -52.6%
20% -51.0% 15% -57.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$24 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,806
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses80 / 324
Est. fees paid−$136
Open positions0
Markets (closed)404 / 404
History coverage231d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 404 Trades
no open positions (194 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $73 −$71 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $342 −$215 -63%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $10 +$10 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$5 -47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$5 -46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$33 +314%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$43 +811%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $13 −$12 -94%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$12 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$29 +464%
Halle Open, Qualification: Benito Sanchez Martinez vs Roberto Bautista Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$16 +247%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$29 +450%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Toby Samuel Jun 13 $10 −$5 -49%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Mimi Xu vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $61 −$5 -8%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $28 −$27 -97%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $28 −$27 -97%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $28 −$27 -97%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $28 −$23 -85%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $45 −$44 -97%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -94%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 11 $41 +$6 +16%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Malawi Jun 11 $28 −$27 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $72 −$70 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $55 +$719 +1304%
New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 09 $55 −$54 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Los Angeles Sparks 4¢ $28 44h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Los Angeles Sparks 5¢ $17 44h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 45h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Los Angeles Sparks 9¢ $28 45h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 6¢ $38 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 7¢ $38 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 39¢ $221 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 61¢ $221 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 22¢ $83 3d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Minnesota Lynx 15¢ $10 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL New York Yankees 100¢ $20 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 50¢ $10 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $27 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $20 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $6 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1019 history records