Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:36:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x2271…7c26 crypto 146 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$60 (-3%) realized −$63 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate57%82W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day56.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days−$109
14 days−$109
30 days−$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$30
sports 9% −$47
weather 5% −$20
other 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 145 -11.4% -19.8% 57% 32% -14.3%
≤30d 145 -11.4% -19.8% 57% 32% -14.3%
≤90d 145 -11.4% -19.8% 57% 32% -14.3%
all 145 -11.4% -19.8% 57% 32% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.8% 32% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -27.5% 17% -22.5%
15% -34.5% 10% -30.0%
20% -40.9% 7% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses82 / 63
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)145 / 146
History coverage8d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day56.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Down 82¢ 96¢ $14 $17 +$3 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 28 $12 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 28 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $41 −$32 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 28 $27 +$15 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 28 $24 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 28 $21 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 28 $12 +$8 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$12 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 28 $26 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$12 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 28 $27 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 28 $20 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 28 $29 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 28 $36 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $34 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 28 $28 −$11 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 28 $41 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 28 $18 −$4 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 28 $36 +$7 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 28 $36 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 28 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$9 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$8 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 28 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 28 $23 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 28 $16 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 28 $20 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $18 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 28 $13 −$3 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 28 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 28 $6 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 28 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$2 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $12 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $12 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $12 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.55 · official $11.92 · 493 history records