Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:00:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
22 0x2272…4c27 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$8 (+4%) realized +$13 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +37% what you keep after slip
Net edge+37%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$7
crypto 13% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+37.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +51.9% +37.4% 67% 67% -1.9%
≤30d 6 +51.9% +37.4% 67% 67% -1.9%
≤90d 6 +51.9% +37.4% 67% 67% -1.9%
all 6 +51.9% +37.4% 67% 67% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +37.4% 67% -1.9%
10% +24.3% 67% -11.3%
15% +12.3% 67% -19.9%
20% +1.3% 50% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +52% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$30 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$13
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage5d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $12 +$13 +105%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$7 +134%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $60 −$60 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $45 +$21 +46%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $14 +$32 +226%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $25 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $12 29h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $60 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $44 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $14 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.21 · official $45.21 (match) · 18 history records