Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:37:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x2272…95a2 sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$47 (-16%) realized −$24 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day23.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-37.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -31.1% -37.7% 36% 36% -27.7%
≤30d 14 -31.1% -37.7% 36% 36% -27.7%
≤90d 14 -31.1% -37.7% 36% 36% -27.7%
all 14 -31.1% -37.7% 36% 36% -27.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.7% 36% -27.7%
10% ← realistic here -43.6% 29% -34.6%
15% -49.1% 14% -40.9%
20% -54.1% 14% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$24
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day23.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Under 20¢ 20¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: England (-3.5) England 22¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$22 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gauthier Onclin vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 23 $56 −$3 -6%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Kimberly Birrell vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 23 $73 +$12 +16%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Julia Grabher vs Mariam Bolkvadze Jun 23 $22 +$8 +34%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Katy Dunne Jun 23 $4 +$1 +32%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Hanyu Guo Jun 23 $24 −$24 -98%
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 23 $24 −$24 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 23 $15 $0 -3%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $3 +$2 +60%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Panna Udvardy vs Anna Bondar Jun 23 $15 −$15 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Draxl vs Remy Bertola Jun 22 $6 +$4 +79%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Gustavo Heide Jun 22 $6 −$3 -47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gauthier Onclin vs Shintaro Mochizuki SELL Shintaro Mochizuki 52¢ $40 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gauthier Onclin vs Shintaro Mochizuki SELL Shintaro Mochizuki 53¢ $12 1h
Spread: England (-3.5) BUY England 22¢ $23 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gauthier Onclin vs Shintaro Mochizuki BUY Shintaro Mochizuki 54¢ $56 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Kimberly Birrell vs Barbora Krejcikova SELL Kimberly Birrell 68¢ $48 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Kimberly Birrell vs Barbora Krejcikova BUY Kimberly Birrell 70¢ $25 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Kimberly Birrell vs Barbora Krejcikova BUY Kimberly Birrell 66¢ $24 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Kimberly Birrell vs Barbora Krejcikova BUY Kimberly Birrell 66¢ $24 4h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Hanyu Guo BUY Hanyu Guo 43¢ $24 4h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 20¢ $23 4h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Julia Grabher vs Mariam Bolkvadze BUY Mariam Bolkvadze 74¢ $11 5h
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 64¢ $9 5h
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 64¢ $9 5h
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 65¢ $6 5h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Julia Grabher vs Mariam Bolkvadze BUY Mariam Bolkvadze 75¢ $11 5h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Katy Dunne BUY Aliaksandra Sasnovich 76¢ $4 5h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 51¢ $15 11h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Panna Udvardy vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Bondar 59¢ $15 12h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Philadelphia Phillies 8¢ $2 19h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Philadelphia Phillies 8¢ $0 19h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Houston Astros 11¢ $2 19h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Houston Astros 11¢ $0 19h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Houston Astros 11¢ $1 19h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 15¢ $4 20h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Gustavo Heide SELL Chun-Hsin Tseng 32¢ $3 28h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Gustavo Heide BUY Chun-Hsin Tseng 60¢ $0 28h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Gustavo Heide BUY Chun-Hsin Tseng 60¢ $6 28h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Draxl vs Remy Bertola BUY Remy Bertola 55¢ $6 30h
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 62¢ $3 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.65 · official $22.65 (match) · 35 history records