Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:45:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
22 0x2274…7840 sports 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$131 (+29%) realized +$132 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$142
other 22% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +38.3% +25.1% 67% 67% +27.7%
≤30d 3 +38.3% +25.1% 67% 67% +27.7%
≤90d 3 +38.3% +25.1% 67% 67% +27.7%
all 3 +38.3% +25.1% 67% 67% +27.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.1% 67% +27.7%
10% +13.2% 67% +15.5%
15% +2.2% 67% +4.3%
20% -7.8% 67% -5.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$117 vs −$92 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.53 per $1 lost it wins $2.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized+$132
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $99 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $92 +$82 +89%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $141 +$152 +108%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $112 −$92 -82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $173 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $100 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $92 3h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $293 12h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $33 16h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $108 16h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) SELL Ecuador 8¢ $20 17h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 44¢ $112 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.33 · official $98.33 (match) · 8 history records