Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:26:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x2275…c8a6 crypto 462 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$506 (-3%) realized −$506 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%198W / 264L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day57.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$484
7 days−$1,597
14 days−$1,691
30 days−$1,690
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,690
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 166 -27.8% -34.7% 33% 31% -25.1%
≤30d 462 -14.6% -22.8% 43% 41% -19.7%
≤90d 462 -14.6% -22.8% 43% 41% -19.7%
all 462 -14.6% -22.8% 43% 41% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.8% 41% -19.7%
10% ← realistic here -30.2% 38% -27.3%
15% -36.9% 35% -34.4%
20% -43.1% 30% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$29 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$506
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses198 / 264
Open positions0
Markets (closed)462 / 462
History coverage14d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day57.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 462 Trades
no open positions (218 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $53 +$47 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $127 +$308 +243%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$43 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $63 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $316 −$120 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $105 +$30 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $106 +$30 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $106 +$76 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $211 +$196 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $105 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $156 +$14 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $305 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $152 −$145 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $210 +$220 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $106 +$121 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $106 +$72 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $67 +$175 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $105 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $106 +$44 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $106 +$82 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $105 +$49 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $126 −$20 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $106 +$39 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $104 +$103 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$50 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $101 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $53 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $53 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $53 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $199 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $26 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $21 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $110 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $53 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $100 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $53 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $53 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $53 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $53 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $20 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $11 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $11 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $158 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $171 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 878 history records