Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:20:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
22 0x2275…4617 other 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$198 (+10%) realized +$197 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%21W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$388
7 days+$154
14 days+$183
30 days+$183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$25
sports 33% +$271
crypto 8% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +5.2% -4.9% 46% 46% -2.0%
≤30d 42 +12.5% +1.8% 50% 50% -0.8%
≤90d 42 +12.5% +1.8% 50% 50% -0.8%
all 42 +12.5% +1.8% 50% 50% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.8% 50% -0.8%
10% -7.9% 50% -10.3%
15% -16.8% 50% -18.9%
20% -25.0% 50% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late +63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$49 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized+$197
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses21 / 21
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)42 / 44
History coverage9d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $70 $71 +$1 (+1%)
Netherlands leading at halftime? Yes 43¢ 44¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $106 +$308 +291%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $59 +$40 +67%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $41 +$73 +180%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $50 +$31 +62%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $152 −$148 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $50 +$83 +165%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $129 −$126 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $28 +$32 +114%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $91 +$127 +140%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $108 −$107 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$57 +112%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $18 +$16 +86%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $30 +$33 +109%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $40 +$66 +165%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $20 +$13 +62%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $51 +$88 +172%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $69 +$100 +145%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $49 −$48 -98%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $39 −$39 -98%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $91 −$90 -98%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $20 +$34 +165%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $50 +$47 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $63 −$62 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $59 −$58 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $33 −$32 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$15 +146%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $5 +$6 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 1h
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 92¢ $82 14h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $12 15h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 15h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $43 15h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 56¢ $51 15h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 100¢ $114 19h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $80 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $59 22h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $41 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $50 27h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $20 38h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 38h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $33 42h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $69 44h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $31 45h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $50 46h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $19 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $31 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $28 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $30 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $28 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $61 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 61¢ $7 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $41 3d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 29¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.96 · official $100.96 (match) · 88 history records