Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:58:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
22 0x227b…47dc crypto 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$72 (+14%) realized +$88 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%25W / 42L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day22.3pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$83
other 7% −$32
weather 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -13.5% -21.7% 37% 36% +2.8%
≤30d 67 -13.5% -21.7% 37% 36% +2.8%
≤90d 67 -13.5% -21.7% 37% 36% +2.8%
all 67 -13.5% -21.7% 37% 36% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.7% 36% +2.8%
10% ← realistic here -29.2% 34% -7.0%
15% -36.0% 33% -16.0%
20% -42.3% 27% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$5 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$88
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses25 / 42
Open positions4
Markets (closed)67 / 71
History coverage5d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day22.3
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-32%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 15? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-91%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 86°F or higher on June 15? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$55 +211%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$10 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$8 +747%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$30 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$13 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$6 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$8 +369%
Yasin Ayari: 1+ goals Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Anthony Elanga: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$4 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$29 +395%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$14 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$15 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$8 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$5 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$15 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$18 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$5 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $51 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $21 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 7h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 8h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $8 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 15? SELL Yes 89¢ $9 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $34 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $21 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $16 9h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $16 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $11 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.48 · official $0.48 (match) · 119 history records