Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:34:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
22 0x227c…9133 other 12 markets active 3h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,000 (+3%) realized +$2,770 · open −$770
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$5,377per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$106est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$38,693now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$714
sports 44% +$2,629
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +14.5% +3.6% 100% 100% +3.6%
≤30d 1 +14.5% +3.6% 100% 100% +3.6%
≤90d 1 +14.5% +3.6% 100% 100% +3.6%
all 1 +14.5% +3.6% 100% 100% +3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.6% 100% +3.6%
10% ← realistic here -6.3% 0% -6.3%
15% -15.4% 0% -15.4%
20% -23.7% 0% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2,686 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$38,693
Realized+$2,770
Unrealized−$770
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Est. fees paid−$106
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5,377
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Under 88¢ 88¢ $8,130 $8,084 −$46 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $6,833 $6,772 −$61 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $6,630 $6,584 −$46 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $4,760 $4,710 −$50 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $3,452 $3,430 −$22 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2,500 $2,432 −$68 (-3%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2,500 $2,292 −$208 (-8%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2,500 $2,250 −$250 (-10%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Under 90¢ 90¢ $1,552 $1,542 −$10 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 37¢ 36¢ $606 $598 −$8 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $18,527 +$2,686 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? AND BUY 21¢ $6,023 3h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2,575 3h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2,575 3h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2,573 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 37¢ $617 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $4,834 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $6,921 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $3,476 4h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $6,686 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $8,159 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Under 90¢ $1,557 4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $13,238 22h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $1,775 22h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $1,004 22h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $2,510 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38,692.61 · official $44,589.15 · 16 history records