Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:25:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

22
0x227c…b8c3
sports · 149 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
+$32 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$12 · open +$50
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$96
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$50
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses62 / 86
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)148 / 149
History coverage103d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%
Chart Positions 1 History 148 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$121
7 days−$318
14 days−$500
30 days−$483
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 48¢ 99¢ $46 $96 +$50 (+108%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner T1 46¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? No 40¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Fils (+1.5) Fils 41¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-04-30? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-100%)
Will FC Annecy win on 2026-05-09? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $81 $0 −$81 (-100%)
Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-1.5) RC Strasbourg Alsace 10¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Spread: FC Annecy (-1.5) FC Annecy 23¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5) Manchester City FC 23¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 64¢ 0¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Truist Championship? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 44¢ 0¢ $69 $0 −$69 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Paris Saint-Germain FC 21¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Spurs 47¢ 0¢ $83 $0 −$83 (-100%)
Spread: FC Annecy (-1.5) FC Annecy 23¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-2.5) RC Strasbourg Alsace 11¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Paris Saint-Germain FC 38¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Paris Saint-Germain FC 41¢ 0¢ $81 $0 −$81 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $100 +$46 +46%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $29 −$29 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $121 −$120 -99%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 10 $29 −$29 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $84 −$83 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $40 +$44 +109%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 08 $91 −$90 -99%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 08 $40 −$39 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $62 −$62 -99%
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 04 $11 −$11 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 04 $70 −$69 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 04 $20 −$20 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry Jun 01 $20 −$20 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $82 +$58 +70%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $31 +$85 +276%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $37 −$36 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $83 −$81 -98%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) May 30 $12 −$11 -97%
Will Rory McIlroy finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $25 +$58 +229%
Will Rory McIlroy finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $10 +$39 +400%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $45 −$44 -99%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $20 −$19 -98%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 15 $22 −$21 -97%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $51 +$58 +114%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 13 $20 +$56 +276%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) May 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $98 +$63 +64%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 10 $82 −$81 -98%
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $50 −$49 -99%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $44 −$43 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $29 +$20 +67%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 09 $55 +$83 +150%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5) May 09 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Truist Championship? May 09 $27 −$26 -97%
Spread: FC Annecy (-1.5) May 09 $30 −$29 -98%
FC Annecy vs. Rodez Aveyron Football: O/U 3.5 May 09 $15 −$15 -98%
Will FC Annecy win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $45 −$44 -98%
Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-1.5) May 07 $24 −$24 -98%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $45 −$45 -98%
Spread: RC Strasbourg Alsace (-2.5) May 07 $8 −$7 -97%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $25 +$37 +146%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) May 06 $34 +$21 +62%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $32 −$32 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 51% −$142
other 49% +$212
politics 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 48¢ $47 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 46¢ $29 5h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 67¢ $20 5h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 68¢ $80 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 36¢ $19 15h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $121 15h
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 BUY Yes 49¢ $29 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $84 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $40 5d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 63¢ $40 5d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 42¢ $15 5d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 45¢ $25 5d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 64¢ $50 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 9d
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 9d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 23¢ $15 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 56¢ $39 9d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 59¢ $20 9d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 33¢ $20 9d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 58¢ $34 9d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry BUY Diane Parry 19¢ $20 13d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 6¢ $10 14d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 14d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 17¢ $30 14d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 8¢ $12 15d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 21¢ $28 15d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 15d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 41¢ $42 15d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 29¢ $10 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -60.5% -64.3% 22% 22% -62.1%
≤30d 24 -27.9% -34.8% 25% 25% -49.3%
≤90d 141 +6.2% -3.9% 40% 40% -10.7%
all 148 +12.9% +2.2% 42% 42% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.2% 42% -9.2%
10% -7.6% 42% -17.9%
15% -16.6% 42% -25.9%
20% -24.7% 41% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.37 · official $96.37 (match) · 313 history records